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Growth unlikely to continue in 2013

By Staff Reporter
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The 2.8 per cent growth recorded over the first quarter of 2013 is unlikely to be maintained throughout the year, according to RP Data.

Previous data has shown that the first quarter of each year is typically the top performer, with this trend recorded in 10 of the 17 years since data collection began in 1996.

RP Data research analyst Cameron Kusher said that if the first quarter growth rate continued for the remainder of the year, it would represent a rise in capital city dwelling values of 11.2 per cent.

However, based on historical figures, the rate is unlikely to continue.

“It’s important to remember that Australia’s national housing market is highly seasonal, with values seeing a greater level of quarterly growth over the first and third quarters of the year and with growth typically lower over the second and final quarters,” he said.

“Between 1996 and 2012 the first quarter recorded the strongest rate of capital appreciation in dwelling values across 10 of the 17 years.

"In each instance, and where the first quarter of the year had not recorded the strongest value growth, it was the third quarter that recorded the greatest value growth. The results highlight the significant impact of seasonality on the change in capital city home values,” Mr Kusher added.

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