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6 YEAR OLD GIRL BEATS TOP PROPERTY EXPERTS AT PREDICTING INVESTMENT HOTSPOTS

By hotspotcentral.com.au

Promoted by HOTSPOTCENTRAL.COM

By Michael Fuller of Hotspotcentral.com.au

With 350,000+ properties listed in 15,000+ Australian suburbs, most investors feel nervous deciding where to invest.

The reality is most people invest with their hearts without relying on the facts. ATO stats prove this with less than 1% of investors achieving financial freedom with property investing.

Fortunately, there are eight factual signs that a suburb’s property prices are set to soar (or hit the floor), so you can pick a winning investment without listening to biased ‘expert’ opinion.

Capital growth is everything. Yes, rents pay the mortgage, but increasing equity allows you to keep buying more properties without relying on your ability to save a deposit.

Buy Before Prices Rise

Time poor or lack confidence and experience? You can:

  • pay an expert to help (caution: they sometimes have personal biases)
  • spend your weekends analysing volumes of internet data
  • follow the media’s hotspot tips (not tailored to your budget or strategy)
  • or do nothing (this has predictable results!).

There’s a simpler way …

This little girl picked her own shortlist of investment hotspots in January 2014, that two years later had grown in value on average 40.97% for houses and 32.82% for units, while the Australian market had only grown an average 12.33%. 

There were eight demand and supply factors that led to her success.

 

8 Signs Prices Are Set To Soar 

GET FREE CHEAT-SHEET: 8 Signs A Suburb’s Property Prices Are Set To Soar

1 - The number of days on market that properties on her list took to sell was falling in comparison to most Australian suburbs, showing increased demand.

2 - Seller discounting was dropping. Higher demand means vendors don’t discount much to secure a sale.

3 - More properties selling at auction in her suburbs meant increasing buyer demand.

4 - Fewer vacant rental properties in her suburbs meant tenants demand outstripped supply. Increasing rents attract investors willing to pay higher prices for cash-flow positive rental investments.

5 - Sufficient renters compared to owner-occupiers - ensuring low rental vacancy rates but also enough house-proud owner-occupiers to keep valuations up.

 

 

6 - Gross rental yields were rising as vacancies reduced, suggesting greater tenant demand. Owner-occupiers buy properties for a premium in desirable areas.

7 - The number of properties for sale was reducing. Low stock levels produce competition, pushing prices up.

8 - The number of online searches per property was increasing, indicating demand was strong for a limited number of properties. 

 

Beating The Experts

In 2013, I was again invited to submit my 2014 top suburb picks to SPI Magazine for their ‘2014 Fast 50’ market forecast. Simultaneously, my 6 year-old daughter, Olivia, picked her top 50 list using our free property research web app, Boomtown (boomapp.com.au). Boomtown rank orders all suburbs by Demand to Supply Ratio (DSR) BoomScore™.

How Did Little Olivia’s Predictions Fair?

We asked an independent data analytics company to audit the average capital growth for my daughter’s top 50 and the SPI experts’ top 50 from January 2014 to January 2016.

Hours of work went into the 'experts’ list’ but Olivia used a tool which did the work for her, reliably, in 90 seconds.

From January 2014 – January 2016, the national average capital growth was 12.33%.

This image shows the results:

We weren’t surprised.

In 2014, we analysed the performance of all 15,000 suburbs between 2010 and 2013, when the property market average growth for three years was -1.7%. We looked at our top 100 suburbs predictions at that time and analysed the subsequent capital growth of these 100 suburbs during the same three-years – they all averaged 11.85% … way above -1.7% and better than the annual top 100 suburbs picked by experts for API magazine, which only grew by 7.3%.

The data is objective, and Boomtown predictions continue to outperform the experts. Like Olivia, I’d rather trust the facts.

 

The 8 Indicators: Where To Get The Data And How To Analyse It

Each property stat can be a powerful indicator of a market’s health. But like all data, property data is subject to anomalies and inaccuracies. In Australia, we have great property data available to us from multiple online sources. But data quality can vary from source to source and from month to month.

To increase data reliability:

  • never rely on one statistic
  • never rely on one statistic from only one source
  • always assess statistics in combination
  • always track trends in the statistics.

Few investors know where to find these statistics. Even fewer know how to bring the stats from 15,000 suburbs together to analyse them and decide which location is best for investment.


Caption: Pictured are some of the sources of property stats for gauging supply and demand.

If you want to know where to find the publicly available data, how to interpret it and how to find your own investment hotspots, then you need our handy Cheat-Sheet (‘8 Signs A Suburb’s Property Prices Are Set To Soar’) which gives you a snapshot of:

  • the 8 important supply and demand stats
  • the ideal score for each factor for easy assessment
  • the individual data sources
  • free property research tips and tools

 

 

DOWNLOAD CHEAT-SHEET 

 

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Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune in to this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Will Magee has had ambitions to enter into the Australian property market for quite some time, but it has been more than just finances holding him back.  Having been granted permanent residency just two weeks ago, Will is wasting no time and is now in the process of signing papers and finding his first investment property.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Will joins host Phil Tarrant to share why he is purchasing his first property in partnership with his brother, discuss the complications that can arise from such a strategy, and unpack the ongoing plan for building a joint property portfolio with his brother.

Will will also share how they approached saving for their first property, why he is taking out the mortgage in his name exclusively, and share their savings plan for the year ahead.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

From property in Australia to a ski lodge in Japan
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A property investment plan years in the making
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  ["title"]=>
  string(75) "Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds"
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Median house prices in regional Victoria outperformed that of Melbourne in the June quarter, the latest REIV figures reveal. 

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Median house prices in the regions rose 4.0 per cent to $419,500 but in Melbourne they dipped by 0.6 of a percentage point to $840,000.

The result in Melbourne was due to a 0.8 of a percentage point fall in prices achieved at auction; this was despite a lift of 2.3 per cent in private sales.

Inner Melbourne suffered due to auction prices, where median prices fell by 4.9 per cent to $1,459,000 but it was middle Melbourne that was hardest hit, with a 5.4 per cent drop to $974,500.

Outer Melbourne had a good quarter with the median rising by 0.5 of a percentage point to $681,000.

Apartment prices in regional Victoria grew by 3.7 per cent to $304,500 while the metro media was up by 0.5 of a percentage point to $604,000.

REIV President Richard Simpson said that despite fewer sales, many sectors of the market were performing well.

“2017 was a bumper year and while the trendline has flattened, despite the fall in median house prices in the June quarter, median prices are still up this calendar year for both houses and units, in Melbourne and in the regions,” Mr Simpson said. 

In particular there was been strong growth in regional centres which is probably due to the first-home buyers’ concessions said Mr Simpsons.

“The first-home buyers’ concession has been a boon for regional areas. A new entrant to the property market buying a house at the regional median will pay no stamp duty, while a first home buyer of an apartment in Melbourne at the median price would pay stamp duty of nearly $25,000,” he said.

Mr Simpson said that more prospective buyers are looking towards regional Victoria which is also having an effect in Melbourne.

“Melbourne’s outer perimeter continues to grow. Small increases in the June quarter mean that the median prices for both houses and units have risen over 10.5 per cent from a year ago.

Mr Simpson said moving forward that vendors need more realistic expectations as the highs of 2017 are now over.

“Negative chatter about the future of the sector coupled with stronger lending controls by financial institutions has created some uncertainty and vendors need to be realistic with their price expectations,” Mr Simpson said.

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Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds

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