The housing cycle has finally bottomed, AMP Capital’s head of investment strategy, Shane Oliver, has recently indicated.
Writing in his latest ‘Oliver’s Insights’, Mr Oliver explained that housing approvals are currently about 20 per cent below where they would normally be “this far into an interest rate easing cycle” and are signaling the bottom of the market.
However, it is a little less certain when the property market willl see substantial growth.
“While housing related indicators have probably bottomed they are yet to trace out a strong recovery,” he noted.
Current household caution is current the major constraint on housing demand and retail sales, and the Reserve Bank appears “reasonably comfortable” with the economic outlook of the country.
However, the Australian economy may be weaker than the RBA has been expecting, he predicts, due to “the fraying of the mining boom at a time when key non-mining sectors such retailing, housing and manufacturing are struggling suggests the economy will be weaker than they are allowing for.
"The soft August jobs report is another indicator that the RBA remains behind the curve and needs to cut interest rates."