Property commentators fall into four distinct groups: barrackers, boo-ers, boofheads and brains, suggests a leading expert.
According to Propertyology’s Simon Pressley most of these voices are “loud and obnoxious” and either talk about prices skyrocketing or imploding.
These are the local residents, real estate agents and some journalists that talk up the potential of the area they are in without significant evidence to do so.
Mr Pressley points out while glass half full people might make the world a better place, it is a recipe for disappointment when it comes to investing.
Over the five years Brisbane annual average house price has increased by 3.5 per cent while the median house price has declined.
Chief economists for AMP Dr Shane Oliver previously explained “some real estate spruikers still wheel out the old property will double every seven years line,” despite meaning the price-to-income ratio would be 14 times in 14 years’ time.
Boo-ers are overly critical of the property market without bothering to take a look objectively at the fundamentals, suggests Mr Pressley.
Dr Oliver explained that the “boo-ers” have been saying for the last decade that house prices are too high to maintain.
“The expensive nature of Australian property and associated high debt levels have seen calls for a property crash pumped out repeatedly over the last 15 years,” Dr Oliver stated.
Sharing Mr Oliver’s sentiments, Mr Pressley believes the boo-ers suggest the typical house in Sydney and Melbourne will decline in value up to $200,000.
Mr Pressley defines the “boofheads” as a group of people who are unsupportive of property.
They take delight in discussing bubbles, busts, crashes and crisis.
“It was the boofheads who declared Australian real estate would decline by 40 per cent when the GFC hit in 2008, and they said it again in response to Sydney and Melbourne’s property boom,” Mr Pressley explains.
Looking at the fundamentals, Mr Oliver has a similar argument to Mr Pressley, with doomsters predicting a decline for the past 15 years.
“On the other hand, property doomsters say it’s hugely overvalued and overindebted with massive mortgage stress and so a 40 per cent or so crash is inevitable,” Dr Oliver explained.
Mr Pressley believes open-minded investors are the brains when it comes to property investment.
“They look beyond the brick and mortar and community features... This cohort understands the importance of seeing property as a financial instrument,” Mr Pressley suggests.
Similarly, Dr Oliver believes the truth for the property market lies in between the barrackers and the boofheads with economic fundamentals needing to be analysed.
“The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be,” Dr Oliver concludes.