Finance advice

Next rate movement will be up: AMP

By Staff Reporter

Despite budget deficits ‘as far as the eye can see’, the cash rate will likely remain on hold for most of 2014 before it once again begins to rise, according to AMP.

Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, said economic news coming out of Australia is mixed – but it should be better.

“The news flow out of Australia hasn’t been so positive, with the announcement of yet another deterioration in the outlook for the budget deficit, with the release of the mid-year budget review – with deficits are far as the eye can see – mainly reflecting a further lowering in nominal growth assumptions,” he said.

“Note though that there is a big element in this of the new government wanting to paint as bleak a picture as possible to help set the scene for significant spending cuts in the May Budget and then engineer a turnaround.

“Based on the Treasurer’s comments, the clear focus will be on spending cuts as opposed to tax hikes and in the interest of boosting productivity in the economy, this is the best way to go. The cuts to projected spending growth are likely to focus on welfare, health and possibly education. With the tailwind from the mining boom largely over and the impact of the aging population set to hit in the decade ahead, I doubt we have any choice really.

“While Australia’s budget deficits and net debt (peaking at 16 per cent of GDP) are low by US, European and Japanese standards and ratings agencies don’t seem too fussed, the latest deficit blowouts remind us again how badly our public finances have gone despite the biggest boom in our history, which should have left them in good shape.”

Mr Oliver said despite the negative news, AMP continues to believe rates will remain steady for most of 2014.

“On the interest rate front, the minutes from the last RBA [Reserve Bank of Australia] meeting and parliamentary testimony from Governor Stevens reiterated that while the RBA has not closed the door on cutting interest rates again, it would prefer not to with borrowing costs not being a constraint on growth signs rate cuts have not got some traction and limitations on how much monetary policy can do anyway,” he said.

“Rather, the Governor’s focus remains on jawboning the Australian dollar lower and rightly continuing to advocate the case for ‘pro-growth, pro-productivity, confidence building reforms’.

“While the risks to Australian interest rates remain on the downside, our view remains that the most likely outcome over the year ahead is for interest rates to remain on hold at 2.5 per cent, ahead of eventual rate hikes late in 2014 as the economy starts to pick up.”

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  ["title"]=>
  string(72) "Mortgages in a tighter lending economy and why Brisbane is a good option"
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Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune in to this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Son Pham is the accredited Head of Mortgages at Rethink Financing\/Rethink Investing. He has over 6 years\u2019 experience writing loans, over 12 years in the wealth management industry working for the likes of CBA, AMP and private practice and he is also a licenced financial planner (AFSL 326450). He has multiple investment properties that are cash flow positive which help pay his mortgage on his home and fund his lifestyle.<\/p>\r\n

Son is able to write all types of residential and commercial property loans.<\/p>\r\n

In this episode of Property Showcase, head of mortgages at Rethink investing Son Pham joins host Tim Neary to unpack how an investor should approach getting a mortgage in place with banks tightening down on serviceability.<\/p>\r\n

Hear from\u00a0Son\u00a0about:\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

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    In this episode of Property Showcase, director of investment services for Open Corp Michael Beresford,\u00a0joins\u00a0editor of Real Estate, Tim Neary to share why he disagrees that the cooling market means that the best times are behind us.<\/p>\r\n

    In this episode, hear from\u00a0Michael\u00a0about:\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

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Mortgages in a tighter lending economy and why Brisbane is a good option
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Will Magee has had ambitions to enter into the Australian property market for quite some time, but it has been more than just finances holding him back.  Having been granted permanent residency just two weeks ago, Will is wasting no time and is now in the process of signing papers and finding his first investment property.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Will joins host Phil Tarrant to share why he is purchasing his first property in partnership with his brother, discuss the complications that can arise from such a strategy, and unpack the ongoing plan for building a joint property portfolio with his brother.

Will will also share how they approached saving for their first property, why he is taking out the mortgage in his name exclusively, and share their savings plan for the year ahead.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

From property in Australia to a ski lodge in Japan
Mortgage Trusts, an alternative first step for property investors
Should a real estate title be in one person’s name only?

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A property investment plan years in the making
object(stdClass)#1210 (52) {
  ["id"]=>
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  ["title"]=>
  string(75) "Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds"
  ["alias"]=>
  string(74) "regional-victoria-showing-up-melbourne-in-price-performance-new-data-finds"
  ["introtext"]=>
  string(139) "

Median house prices in regional Victoria outperformed that of Melbourne in the June quarter, the latest REIV figures reveal. 

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Median house prices in the regions rose 4.0 per cent to $419,500 but in Melbourne they dipped by 0.6 of a percentage point to $840,000.

The result in Melbourne was due to a 0.8 of a percentage point fall in prices achieved at auction; this was despite a lift of 2.3 per cent in private sales.

Inner Melbourne suffered due to auction prices, where median prices fell by 4.9 per cent to $1,459,000 but it was middle Melbourne that was hardest hit, with a 5.4 per cent drop to $974,500.

Outer Melbourne had a good quarter with the median rising by 0.5 of a percentage point to $681,000.

Apartment prices in regional Victoria grew by 3.7 per cent to $304,500 while the metro media was up by 0.5 of a percentage point to $604,000.

REIV President Richard Simpson said that despite fewer sales, many sectors of the market were performing well.

“2017 was a bumper year and while the trendline has flattened, despite the fall in median house prices in the June quarter, median prices are still up this calendar year for both houses and units, in Melbourne and in the regions,” Mr Simpson said. 

In particular there was been strong growth in regional centres which is probably due to the first-home buyers’ concessions said Mr Simpsons.

“The first-home buyers’ concession has been a boon for regional areas. A new entrant to the property market buying a house at the regional median will pay no stamp duty, while a first home buyer of an apartment in Melbourne at the median price would pay stamp duty of nearly $25,000,” he said.

Mr Simpson said that more prospective buyers are looking towards regional Victoria which is also having an effect in Melbourne.

“Melbourne’s outer perimeter continues to grow. Small increases in the June quarter mean that the median prices for both houses and units have risen over 10.5 per cent from a year ago.

Mr Simpson said moving forward that vendors need more realistic expectations as the highs of 2017 are now over.

“Negative chatter about the future of the sector coupled with stronger lending controls by financial institutions has created some uncertainty and vendors need to be realistic with their price expectations,” Mr Simpson said.

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Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds

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