Finance advice

‘Dead certainty’ rates will be cut by April

By Staff Reporter

Commentators are increasingly speculating about multiple interest rate adjustments occurring this year, with one going so far as to say “the markets think it’s a dead certainty rates are going to be cut by April 2015”.

Speaking about the year ahead, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said there is a high probability the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) will impose lending restrictions on investor activity this year, but said this would open the door for even more interest rate cuts to occur.

“I think there is a high probability that APRA, prompted by the RBA will take greater action in 2015. They will do this in an attempt to reduce risky, speculative investor behaviour, particularly from those who should not be taking on large amounts of housing debt due to their limited capacity to pay it back,” he said.

“However, if APRA does move, it could potentially open the way for the RBA to make rate cuts, possibly more than the standard 25 basis points. It’s clear to most the economy is weak and if it wasn’t for the threat of a national surge in house prices, rates would most likely be lower today.”

Mr Christopher said so far, APRA’s announcements have “amounted to no more than jawboning”.

“They appear to have flagged further action, but if and when that comes remains to be seen. Could there be a situation behind the scenes where the two government departments are in open communications with each other on the timing and magnitude of the action? Possibly,” he said.

According to Mr Christopher, this is overwhelming evidence the cash rate will continue to be reduced this year.

“Basically, the markets think it’s a dead certainty rates are going to be cut by April 2015, with the chances increasing of another rate cut in June to take the cash rate to two per cent,” he said.

“If such rate cuts happen, housing markets would be boosted throughout the course of the calendar year with most cities recording growth at the top end of our forecast ranges.”

Mr Christopher said a rate cut would also lower the Australian dollar, which would stimulate local tourism economies and their respective housing markets – which would “surely… force APRA’s hand”.

“Right now we are unsure of the magnitude they would place in curbing investment lending. So it is an x factor to be watchful of," he said.

“In the extreme, APRA could forcibly increase loan-to-value ratio requirements on the banks – for example, require investors to present up to a 20 per cent down payment, which would without doubt slow the east coast housing market.”

Mr Christopher said he suspects such radical action is unlikely and predicted APRA will take a more measured approach.

 

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Will Magee has had ambitions to enter into the Australian property market for quite some time, but it has been more than just finances holding him back.  Having been granted permanent residency just two weeks ago, Will is wasting no time and is now in the process of signing papers and finding his first investment property.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Will joins host Phil Tarrant to share why he is purchasing his first property in partnership with his brother, discuss the complications that can arise from such a strategy, and unpack the ongoing plan for building a joint property portfolio with his brother.

Will will also share how they approached saving for their first property, why he is taking out the mortgage in his name exclusively, and share their savings plan for the year ahead.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

From property in Australia to a ski lodge in Japan
Mortgage Trusts, an alternative first step for property investors
Should a real estate title be in one person’s name only?

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A property investment plan years in the making
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Median house prices in regional Victoria outperformed that of Melbourne in the June quarter, the latest REIV figures reveal. 

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Median house prices in the regions rose 4.0 per cent to $419,500 but in Melbourne they dipped by 0.6 of a percentage point to $840,000.

The result in Melbourne was due to a 0.8 of a percentage point fall in prices achieved at auction; this was despite a lift of 2.3 per cent in private sales.

Inner Melbourne suffered due to auction prices, where median prices fell by 4.9 per cent to $1,459,000 but it was middle Melbourne that was hardest hit, with a 5.4 per cent drop to $974,500.

Outer Melbourne had a good quarter with the median rising by 0.5 of a percentage point to $681,000.

Apartment prices in regional Victoria grew by 3.7 per cent to $304,500 while the metro media was up by 0.5 of a percentage point to $604,000.

REIV President Richard Simpson said that despite fewer sales, many sectors of the market were performing well.

“2017 was a bumper year and while the trendline has flattened, despite the fall in median house prices in the June quarter, median prices are still up this calendar year for both houses and units, in Melbourne and in the regions,” Mr Simpson said. 

In particular there was been strong growth in regional centres which is probably due to the first-home buyers’ concessions said Mr Simpsons.

“The first-home buyers’ concession has been a boon for regional areas. A new entrant to the property market buying a house at the regional median will pay no stamp duty, while a first home buyer of an apartment in Melbourne at the median price would pay stamp duty of nearly $25,000,” he said.

Mr Simpson said that more prospective buyers are looking towards regional Victoria which is also having an effect in Melbourne.

“Melbourne’s outer perimeter continues to grow. Small increases in the June quarter mean that the median prices for both houses and units have risen over 10.5 per cent from a year ago.

Mr Simpson said moving forward that vendors need more realistic expectations as the highs of 2017 are now over.

“Negative chatter about the future of the sector coupled with stronger lending controls by financial institutions has created some uncertainty and vendors need to be realistic with their price expectations,” Mr Simpson said.

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Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds
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If Mark Hodge’s face looks familiar to you it could be because of his time working as a professional entertainer which saw him working with the Australian ballet, appearing on multiple seasons of Dancing with the Stars and touring in musical theatre for 17 years. What you may not know is that Mark is also heavily involved in the short-term property rental marketspace.

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Mark joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss his transition from entertainer to investor, a journey pushed forward by dance related injuries and even a hit and run which saw him needing to find alternate methods to bring in an income. Mark shares how bad long-term tenants and a gang member guided him to the short-term rental market, and how this pushed him into helping others to realise the same benefits.

Mark will also address the common concerns, discuss what his company Maisonnets specialise in and unpack how they are making the process of filling short term rentals easier for investors.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

The hard-to-swallow truth: The prickly points of the Airbnb reforms
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AREAS MENTIONED:

Melbourne
Sydney
Rushcutters Bay
Maroubra
Potts Point

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From pirouettes to property investment

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