Finance advice

‘Property bubble to pop’ when rates rise

By James Mitchell

Prices in one capital city are set to decline once the cash rate starts to climb, according to a new report. 

In a research note released yesterday, HSBC economists Paul Bloxham and Daniel Smith predict strong national housing price growth to continue at seven to eight per cent, driven by record-low mortgage rates.

“We see Sydney prices rising by 9 to 10 per cent in 2015 and expect that, when rates do eventually rise, there is now a high risk that Sydney will see price falls,” the economists said.

“Although we do not see a national housing bubble, we believe that growth in Sydney housing prices is currently running at an unsustainable pace and that any further growth is likely to be met by housing price declines in future years, when interest rates do begin to rise,” they said.

A signal of the growing risk of overinflation in the Sydney market is the high level of investor demand, according to HSBC.

Housing loan approvals for investors currently account for a record-high share of new loan approvals in New South Wales, it said.

“The high involvement of investors suggests that there is a speculative dynamic in the Sydney market that may be worrisome.

“Investors are typically seeking capital gains, rather than rental yield, since Australia’s tax system favours capital gains.

“Investors themselves tend to be lower-risk borrowers because they typically have equity in another owner-occupied property and have lower loan-to-valuation ratios than first home buyers. In this way, it is not clear that investor involvement is leading to increased financial system risk.

“However, it does seem likely that increased investor activity is driving housing prices to rise faster than fundamental factors suggest they should in the Sydney market,” HSBC said.

Housing prices have risen by 23 per cent over the past 2.5 years and are currently growing at 8 per cent year on year.

In Sydney, they are up 33 per cent and rising at 13 per cent year on year.

Meanwhile, building activity is also booming, with national residential approvals reaching a record high of over 200,000 dwellings over the past year.

While the RBA cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points this month, further fuelling investor demand with the promise of cheap money, APRA is monitoring mortgage lenders after raising concerns about the high proportion of investors in the market, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

These measures include: the prudential regulator "paying particular attention to" higher-risk mortgage lending such as higher loan-to-income loans, high loan-to-valuation loans, interest-only loans and loans with long terms; the prudential regulator noting that if banks grow their lending to investors faster than 10 per cent, the regulator may consider "further action”; and that all new borrowers need to incorporate an interest rate buffer of "at least two percentage points" above the loan product rate and a floor of at least seven per cent, which banks need to consider when assessing a borrower’s ability to service a loan, HSBC explained.

“The challenge to these measures is that the RBA has just delivered a further cash rate cut, which has seen Australian mortgage rates fall to new all-time lows.

“It is unusual in Australia for prudential policy and interest rate settings to be working in opposite directions.

“As the RBA noted last week, it is "working with other regulators to contain the economic risks that may arise from the housing market".

“Time will tell if these measures are successful; however, historically, the interest rate setting has had a far more powerful influence on Australia’s housing market than other factors," HSBC said.

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  ["id"]=>
  string(5) "18297"
  ["title"]=>
  string(72) "Mortgages in a tighter lending economy and why Brisbane is a good option"
  ["alias"]=>
  string(72) "mortgages-in-a-tighter-lending-economy-and-why-brisbane-is-a-good-option"
  ["introtext"]=>
  string(255) "

Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

" ["fulltext"]=> string(818) "

To hear more about these services, make sure to tune in to this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Son Pham is the accredited Head of Mortgages at Rethink Financing\/Rethink Investing. He has over 6 years\u2019 experience writing loans, over 12 years in the wealth management industry working for the likes of CBA, AMP and private practice and he is also a licenced financial planner (AFSL 326450). He has multiple investment properties that are cash flow positive which help pay his mortgage on his home and fund his lifestyle.<\/p>\r\n

Son is able to write all types of residential and commercial property loans.<\/p>\r\n

In this episode of Property Showcase, head of mortgages at Rethink investing Son Pham joins host Tim Neary to unpack how an investor should approach getting a mortgage in place with banks tightening down on serviceability.<\/p>\r\n

Hear from\u00a0Son\u00a0about:\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

    \r\n
  • The pitfalls that he has seen people get into<\/li>\r\n
  • Interest only loans and if that is the way to go<\/li>\r\n
  • How the mortgage division supports the overall business of Rethink Investing<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>","clientImage1":"images\/podcasts\/Son-Pham.jpg","clientUrl1":"https:\/\/rethinkinvesting.com.au\/","clientName2":"OpenCorp","clientDesc2":"

    Whether it\u2019s building a successful property portfolio or investing in one of their Development Funds, Open Corp can help you through every stage of your investment journey. The team has 40 property specialists who collectively have been involved in over $4 billion worth of property transactions and the acquisition of more than 8000 homes and investment properties.<\/p>\r\n

    In this episode of Property Showcase, director of investment services for Open Corp Michael Beresford,\u00a0joins\u00a0editor of Real Estate, Tim Neary to share why he disagrees that the cooling market means that the best times are behind us.<\/p>\r\n

    In this episode, hear from\u00a0Michael\u00a0about:\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

      \r\n
    • Why Brisbane is a good investment option right now<\/li>\r\n
    • How he wants to help clients take advantage of the current market<\/li>\r\n
    • Why negative press can be good for investors<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>","clientImage2":"images\/podcasts\/Michael-Beresford-170x170.jpg","clientUrl2":"https:\/\/www.opencorp.com.au\/","clientName3":"","clientDesc3":"","clientImage3":"","clientUrl3":"","clientName4":"","clientDesc4":"","clientImage4":"","clientUrl4":"","author_promotion_line":""}" ["metadata"]=> string(53) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","xreference":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(60) "mortgages, tighter, lending, economy, brisbane, good, option" ["metadesc"]=> string(200) "Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall" ["access"]=> string(1) "1" ["hits"]=> string(2) "18" ["xreference"]=> string(0) "" ["featured"]=> string(1) "0" ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> string(3) "818" ["ordering"]=> string(1) "0" ["category_title"]=> string(17) "Property Showcase" ["category_route"]=> string(25) "podcast/property-showcase" ["category_access"]=> string(1) "1" ["category_alias"]=> string(17) "property-showcase" ["published"]=> string(1) "1" ["parents_published"]=> string(1) "1" ["lft"]=> string(2) "98" ["author"]=> string(12) "Todd Stevens" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["parent_title"]=> string(7) "Podcast" ["parent_id"]=> string(2) "48" ["parent_route"]=> string(7) "podcast" ["parent_alias"]=> string(7) "podcast" ["rating"]=> string(1) "0" ["rating_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#1212 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#1209 (95) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "spbase:article" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "1" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "0" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "0" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(5) "right" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(6) "_:blog" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "15" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "1" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_votes"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_ratings"]=> string(1) "0" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(0) ["sef_ids"]=> int(0) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> string(1) "0" ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(53) "Finance Tips and Insights - 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Mortgages in a tighter lending economy and why Brisbane is a good option
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Will Magee has had ambitions to enter into the Australian property market for quite some time, but it has been more than just finances holding him back.  Having been granted permanent residency just two weeks ago, Will is wasting no time and is now in the process of signing papers and finding his first investment property.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(2483) "

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Will joins host Phil Tarrant to share why he is purchasing his first property in partnership with his brother, discuss the complications that can arise from such a strategy, and unpack the ongoing plan for building a joint property portfolio with his brother.

Will will also share how they approached saving for their first property, why he is taking out the mortgage in his name exclusively, and share their savings plan for the year ahead.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

From property in Australia to a ski lodge in Japan
Mortgage Trusts, an alternative first step for property investors
Should a real estate title be in one person’s name only?

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A property investment plan years in the making
object(stdClass)#1210 (52) {
  ["id"]=>
  string(5) "18287"
  ["title"]=>
  string(75) "Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds"
  ["alias"]=>
  string(74) "regional-victoria-showing-up-melbourne-in-price-performance-new-data-finds"
  ["introtext"]=>
  string(139) "

Median house prices in regional Victoria outperformed that of Melbourne in the June quarter, the latest REIV figures reveal. 

" ["fulltext"]=> string(2323) "

Median house prices in the regions rose 4.0 per cent to $419,500 but in Melbourne they dipped by 0.6 of a percentage point to $840,000.

The result in Melbourne was due to a 0.8 of a percentage point fall in prices achieved at auction; this was despite a lift of 2.3 per cent in private sales.

Inner Melbourne suffered due to auction prices, where median prices fell by 4.9 per cent to $1,459,000 but it was middle Melbourne that was hardest hit, with a 5.4 per cent drop to $974,500.

Outer Melbourne had a good quarter with the median rising by 0.5 of a percentage point to $681,000.

Apartment prices in regional Victoria grew by 3.7 per cent to $304,500 while the metro media was up by 0.5 of a percentage point to $604,000.

REIV President Richard Simpson said that despite fewer sales, many sectors of the market were performing well.

“2017 was a bumper year and while the trendline has flattened, despite the fall in median house prices in the June quarter, median prices are still up this calendar year for both houses and units, in Melbourne and in the regions,” Mr Simpson said. 

In particular there was been strong growth in regional centres which is probably due to the first-home buyers’ concessions said Mr Simpsons.

“The first-home buyers’ concession has been a boon for regional areas. A new entrant to the property market buying a house at the regional median will pay no stamp duty, while a first home buyer of an apartment in Melbourne at the median price would pay stamp duty of nearly $25,000,” he said.

Mr Simpson said that more prospective buyers are looking towards regional Victoria which is also having an effect in Melbourne.

“Melbourne’s outer perimeter continues to grow. Small increases in the June quarter mean that the median prices for both houses and units have risen over 10.5 per cent from a year ago.

Mr Simpson said moving forward that vendors need more realistic expectations as the highs of 2017 are now over.

“Negative chatter about the future of the sector coupled with stronger lending controls by financial institutions has created some uncertainty and vendors need to be realistic with their price expectations,” Mr Simpson said.

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Regional Victoria showing up Melbourne in price performance, new data finds

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