Finance advice

Rate cut 'likely' on Tuesday

By Staff Reporter
Rates

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans believes the RBA is still on course to cut the cash rate in May.

In a research note released last week, Mr Evans said we have now passed the last three significant milestones for insight into the Reserve Bank board decision on 5 May.

“From our perspective the case for a cut in May remains strong and we continue to expect the bank to finally deliver on the second leg of the 50 basis points of cuts in early 2015 we forecast back on 4 December last year,” he said.

Mr Evans said the decision not to cut rates at the April board meeting demonstrated a need for more time and data to assess whether the economy was on the “previously forecast path”.

“It seems that even the ‘previously forecast path’ would be sufficient to justify another rate cut,” he said.

“Forecasts are revised in the Statement of Monetary Policy which will print on 8 May, three days after the board meeting.

“If we are right and the board has decided to cut its growth forecast in 2015 and 2016, probably from 2.75 per cent and 3.50 per cent to 2.50 per cent and 3.25 per cent respectively, then a decision not to cut would seem particularly bizarre.”

Mr Evans noted that in formulating the forecasts for the February statement, the RBA assumed market pricing, which implied a follow-up cut by May.

“Not delivering the assumed cut and lowering the growth forecast would be internally consistent but hardly a likely policy option for a bank that appears comfortable about the inflation outlook but concerned about below-trend growth,” he said.

Mr Evans also noted the plea for a lower Australian dollar, which was emphasised in the minutes.

“At the time of the April meeting, the AUD was trading around US$0.76, now we see it in the $0.77-$0.78 range,” he said.

“This should be a clear signal that jawboning the AUD is unsuccessful if interest rates are not adjusted accordingly.”

If the board decides to cut the cash rate, Mr Evans said it will be “patient” before it decides whether even more cuts are necessary.

“That decision will hinge on whether it feels that it can maintain a forecast of 3.0 per cent to 3.25 per cent growth for 2016 – that will not be clear until the fourth quarter of this year,” he said.

“For now, we are comfortable to stick with our own forecast of 3 per cent growth in 2016 and a flat rate profile after May; however, this view will be well tested over the course of the second half of 2015.”

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Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune into this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Many investors who would have been successfully approved for finance last year are struggling now to either begin or continue their property investment journey because of the current financial climate.

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, broker John Manciamelli and Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock joins host Tim Neary to discuss how APRA changes and the royal commission have resulted in a tighter lending economy and what that means for Australian investors.

They discuss what traps investors should avoid if they are trying to obtain finance, the four key growth drivers in a property market and unpacking trust structures while revealing one type of trust that you should miss.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Katarina joins host Tim Neary to unpack her entry into the property market and experiences of rentvesting, and how the Smart Property Investment Show was vital  in a number of decisions which she made along the way.

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If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Why buying new property doesn’t mean buying better property

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