Finance advice

Next rate movement will be up: experts

By Reporter
Reserve Bank of Australia

Despite continuing speculation that the Reserve Bank could cut rates again later this year, most commentators believe the cash rate is set to rise.

In response to finder.com.au’s Reserve Bank Survey, 22 experts and commentators predicted rates would rise in 2016 or beyond. Of these, eight predicted the next rate movement would be in the fourth quarter of 2016 – with Mark Crosby from the University of Melbourne saying the case for another rate cut is not strong enough at this point.

“The Reserve Bank has been aggressive in cutting rates in recent months, but they are now running up against too hot a housing market and it is time to consider raising rates as the Fed moves to raise in Q4 [2015] or Q1 2016,” Mr Crosby said.

Six of the 22 experts believe the rise will come a little earlier, in the third quarter of 2015. In addition, three experts predict the rise will come in the first three months of 2016 and two said it will be in the second quarter.

Chris Caton from BT Financial Group predicted the next movement will be a rate rise in the first quarter of 2016, but said the economy is still in a state of flux and this may change.

“The Reserve Bank is now a reluctant cutter,” Dr Caton said. “It may still cut again, but it will wait to see what’s happening to growth, unemployment and investor behaviour in residential property.”

Not all experts on the panel agreed with these forecasts, though – with a further 10 experts believing the Reserve Bank still has room to cut. Six of the panellists suggested a rate cut as soon as Q3 2015 (July, August or September) and four believe it will come at the tail-end of the year.

Mark Brimble from GriffithGriffith, ACT Griffith, NSW University said there were several factors that could encourage the Reserve Bank to cut rates again this year.

“It will wait to see how the markets and participants respond to [the rate cut in May],” Mr Brimble said.

“Continued uncertainty in the global market, as well as weak domestic indicators, will continue a downward bias. Notably, the weakness in China and expected falls in minerals and energy will also keep inflation below the Reserve Bank’s target band.”

All of finder.com.au’s survey participants correctly predicted that the Reserve Bank would keep the cash rate on hold at 2.00 per cent in June.

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Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune into this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Many investors who would have been successfully approved for finance last year are struggling now to either begin or continue their property investment journey because of the current financial climate.

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, broker John Manciamelli and Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock joins host Tim Neary to discuss how APRA changes and the royal commission have resulted in a tighter lending economy and what that means for Australian investors.

They discuss what traps investors should avoid if they are trying to obtain finance, the four key growth drivers in a property market and unpacking trust structures while revealing one type of trust that you should miss.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

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When buying property, it’s important to focus on what’s important. Investor Katarina Taurian shares just what exactly is important to her: having the mindset of looking past superficial cosmetic matters and homing in on the structural suitability and potential of a property.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Katarina joins host Tim Neary to unpack her entry into the property market and experiences of rentvesting, and how the Smart Property Investment Show was vital  in a number of decisions which she made along the way.

Katarina discusses about the team that she had help her along the way, why she thinks that you should never skimp on a good solicitor and accountant, and the red flags which tell her why buying a new property doesn’t necessarily mean buying a better property.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Why buying new property doesn’t mean buying better property

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