RBA Cash Rate Announcement - July 2015

All 33 of finder.com.au’s panel of experts and commentators predicted that the central bank would leave the cash rate unchanged today, with 56 per cent forecasting interest rates will begin to rise in 2016.

Ahead of today’s announcement, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said not enough had happened since the RBA’s June meeting to justify a rate movement.

He believes the board will review its forecasts in August before easing again.

LJ Hooker chief executive Grant Harrod said the RBA will monitor the property market closely before adjusting the cash rate further.

“The Reserve Bank is still weighing up the impact of this year’s two rate cuts,” Mr Harrod said. “The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets continue to outperform, as evidenced by strong auction clearance rates. This, combined with data and the global economic environment, will guide the Reserve Bank over the remainder of the year.”

Mr Harrod said despite the continued focus on Sydney and Melbourne’s property markets, there is a serious lack of stock this winter season.

“It has remained very tight and hence there is a classic demand and supply issue,” he said.

“Our research shows there is interest from vendors to list their property but the issue of ‘don’t sell until you buy’, has created a Catch 22 situation and it is keeping pressure on prices.

“Concern about finding a new place after selling is also seeing a trend of people requesting longer settlement periods.”

It would appear punters agreed with the experts and also correctly forecast today’s outcome.

Online bookmaker CrownBet said the odds for ‘no change’ were just $1.03 ahead of the meeting – meaning bettors would receive 3¢ for every dollar wagered on this selection.

“In betting terms, it’s as close to a certainty as you’re likely to see for some time,” CrownBet’s Haydn Lane said.

“Punters believe the announcement is a foregone conclusion.”