Finance advice

October rate predictions

By Reporter

Smart Property Investment’s panel of investment commentators have made their predictions concerning the RBA’s October rate decision, due this afternoon.

The RBA will leave rates on hold for October, according to the majority of Smart Property Investment’s commentators, despite some indicating that another rate cut is due to come within this financial year.

Liz Sterzel, managing director of PerthPerth, TAS Perth, WA buyer’s agency Property Wizards, believes that Malcolm Turnbull’s ascendency to prime minister may have given the RBA some breathing space, despite the continued worsening of commodity prices following recent market shocks.

“On the positive side, retail sales are up, the economy is moderating but still growing, and the new prime minister is aiming to restore confidence in the economy,” she said.

“The low Australian Dollar is helping the economy by making exports and tourism more attractive, and the record low interest rates are helping lift construction and services investment.”

Property academic Peter Koulizos, reflected this sentiment – arguing that the performance of the Australian dollar would be key to any future rate movements.

“My prediction is that interest rates will remain the same and won't be changed at the October meeting of the RBA. The decrease in the Australian dollar is working in favour of the economy and, at this stage, the RBA doesn't need to decrease interest rates. However, if the Australian dollar bottoms out and the economy is still sluggish, then the RBA might drop interest rates,” he said.

Cate Bakos, director of Cate Bakos Property, believes that market confidence is strong enough to prolong any rate cut until next year.

“Our dollar has weakened and Australian exports are once again more competitive. Unemployment figures haven’t worsened and our government changes have possibly increased public – and more-so business – confidence as opposed to creating instability.

“While we still have commodity concerns in relation to oversupply globally, I believe that the RBA will keep their powder dry for a rate cut in 2016 perhaps.”

Alan Fox, director of Propertunity, believes that recent lending changes have dissipated the need for any rate increases – citing auction performances as evidence of their impact.

“I predict the RBA will leave rates on hold in October. The APRA clampdown seems to be biting and having the desired effect on lessening investor demand. Auction clearance rates have been coming off the boil,” he said. 

Opinion from Smart Property Investment’s two investors on the ground showed a marked difference in outlook, despite both commentators reaching the same prediction.

Julian Lancey was steadfast in his conclusion, citing calming Sydney and Melbourne markets as the primary reason rates will remain on hold.

“Rates will not go up, they will not go down, they will stay the same. This is a sure thing,” he said.

“What a great month of property news it's been. The biggest news for me was reading that the auction clearance rate has decreased from its peak in the 90 per cent to now in the early 70 per cent – one of the first [signs] that the boom is over. Why? Maybe the increased interest rates for investors, maybe that some banks are asking for more of a deposit for these new 'risky' postcodes, maybe investors are looking at other cities.

“Regardless, the Sydney and Melbourne property hysteria is calming down and property articles are making their way back into the back of the newspaper.”

Investor Jonathan Preston was less sure – pointing to market activity overseas and domestically as a precursor to future rate decreases.

“September brought about some interesting developments. ANZ stuck their neck out with the 1.5 per cent rate call, based on the idea that the unemployment rate is [set] to rise rather than fall. There is also a lot of commentary coming out about auction clearance rates decreasing, which indicates that the property price concerns by the RBA will be somewhat alleviated," he said. 

“Lastly, with the US Federal Reserve holding off on increasing rates in the US, the AUD/USD is unlikely to drop significantly further in the short term, which is not what Glenn Stevens wants. All of this points to the next move being down. I don't necessarily expect it to happen this month, but if not this month then by March next year,” he said.

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FROM THE WEB

podcast

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A softening market can be a difficult time for a property investor with finance approval tightening and property capital growth slowing, and while many real estate agents are also feeling the squeeze McGrath Brighton Le Sands' Bill Tsounias claims it is simply the market returning to normal.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Bill joins host Phil Tarrant to share his thoughts on the current Sydney property market, and to share the shifts that he has seen in house and unit sale prices following their worst quarter in the past decade.

Bill will unpack why properties are spending longer on market, share what he believes property investors are doing wrong when trying to sell their properties and share the secrets to getting the best out of a real estate agent and an auction in the current softening market.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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AREAS MENTIONED:

Revesby
South Hurstville
Sans Souci
Strathfield

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Gavin Kemp and his now-fiancé bought their first property together after only six months of dating. They weren’t even living together at the time. Now, two years on, the pair have bought five properties, sold two and have a solid plan in place for their ongoing property journey. 

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Gavin joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss how he chose the locations where he decided to invest and how, due to the initial lack of education (something that he now values highly), he lost money on his first two investments.

Gavin will share his thoughts on the current property market, reveal the people who he has leaned on throughout his property journey and discuss why his strategy employs a zero procrastination rule.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Redcliffe
Port Macquarie
Loganlea
Launceston
Raceview

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A joint property portfolio before they were even living together
object(stdClass)#1322 (52) {
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As the investment market tightens are you looking to learn something that will help you realign or readjust your property goals? In this episode of The Smart Property Investment Show, first time on the podcast Lisa Porter joins host Phil Tarrant to talk about the gems and wisdom associated with her modest portfolio of ‘only’ six properties.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(2939) "

Listen now as Lisa and host Phil Tarrant discuss how her property journey started in the UK, with the purchase of a rough unit in a lower-socio suburb of South London. Lisa breaks down how that first purchase provided her greatest lesson, one she still applies today - turn off the noise, don’t worry too much about the peripheries and just get on with it.

The pair also discuss how property has given Lisa so much extra value in her life, not just building an asset base and heaps of enjoyment, but it also how it changed the trajectory of her career. Women, she says, shouldn’t be fearful of being proactive and taking control of the direction of their family’s financial future.  

 

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Walking and talking property investment with Lisa Porter – therapy, empowerment, education and inspiration

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