Finance advice

Bank issues dire warning to investors for 2016

By Jack Needham

Investors have been told to brace for rising vacancies, reduced rents, falling property values and greater settlement risks in two of the country’s hottest property markets heading into 2016.

A new report from CBA forecasts a difficult road ahead for investors who have purchased off-the-plan apartments in Melbourne and Brisbane, as the two markets struggle to absorb an increased supply of apartment stock.

In the bank’s Commbank Property Insights Summer Edition it warns of extended vacancy periods arising from the high concentrations of apartment stock set to be completed in the coming 24 months – stating that it may be several years before population demand meets the level of supply.

The report echoes recent warnings about the two markets issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

According to CBA’s head of property strategy and research, Kevin Stanley, the situation in Melbourne and Brisbane is likely to increase settlement risk and put downward pressure on values.

“Inner Melbourne and inner Brisbane will experience the highest concentration of apartment completions in absolute terms in the next two years. As a result, these two locations will be subject to rising vacancy and reduced rents, leading to drops in property values and greater settlement risk,” Mr Stanley said.

The bank isolated the top 20 suburbs for apartment completions in 2016, which included the Melbourne CBD and Southbank and the Brisbane suburbs of NewsteadNewstead, QLD Newstead, TAS, South Brisbane, Woolloongabba, Bowen Hills, West EndWest End, QLD West End, QLD West End, QLD West End, QLD, Fortitude Valley.

The inner-city Melbourne market has long been the subject of concerns of apartment oversupply, but the news doesn’t bode well for the Brisbane market, which has already disappointed in 2015.

Domain Group chief economist Dr Andrew Wilson recently lamented the lack of movement in the Brisbane market during 2015, stating that a weak state economy was likely to continue dampening price growth into the future.

“Brisbane’s probably been the disappointment this year, and it may be the surprise packet. There was the prospect that Brisbane would clearly be first place behind Melbourne and Sydney for price growth, but it’s just gone nowhere," he told Smart Property Investment.

“Without a significant pick-up in the economic prospects, particularly of Queensland, there won’t be the revival that many have predicted at that level," he added.

Brisbane-based buyer’s agent Meghan Hetherington explained that investors with existing apartments in the city are already struggling with extended vacancy periods and reduced rentals – with little scope for improvement.

“We’ve got such a strong level of investor activity at the moment I think the most affected market is the unit market. There is quite an oversupply and there’s a lot more to come onto the market. We’re actually going through a lot of analysis on that market at the moment and there isn't an increase in tenants looking for that product – it’s not typically a product that owner-occupiers buy. [It’s an] investor product, the units, but there’s a lot of supply and not a lot of tenants and I think we’re going to see quite long periods of vacancy,” she said.

The news might be grim for Melbourne and Brisbane but, despite recent reports that Sydney’s apartment market is already struggling with increased settlement risk due to revised lending requirements and an oversupply of apartment stock, the report indicates that it is the best-placed capital city to cope with an increase in apartment numbers.

“In Sydney, the broader geographic spread of completions across a large number of suburbs, together with a greater depth to the buyer and occupier market, is likely to mitigate these risks,” CBA’s Mr Stanley said.

The Sydney suburbs with the highest number of estimated apartment completions in 2016 included Mascot, Chippendale, Bondi Junction and Parramatta.

Read more: 

Property bubble burst will reveal new hotspots 

Tax warning for property investors 

2016 Victorian growth areas announced 

What is a property bubble? 

Using equity to build your property portfolio 

 

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podcast

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Dominique Grubisa joins host Phil Tarrant to share her personal story which saw her hit rock bottom with excessive debt during the GFC.

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Dominique unpacks how, by relying on her background in law, she was able to overcome that debt and in doing so develop a unique investment strategy which she believes many can utilise today.

Dominique discusses distressed properties, and how she goes about finding them in order to buy property well below market value. She shares the process of identifying distressed properties as well as the controversy surrounding this buying method.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

3 big property investment myths busted open
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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune into this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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    In this episode of Property Showcase, Michael Beresford joins editor of Wealth James Mitchell to unpack why recent political changes are not reason for concern for Australian investors.<\/p>\r\n

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Many investors who would have been successfully approved for finance last year are struggling now to either begin or continue their property investment journey because of the current financial climate.

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, broker John Manciamelli and Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock joins host Tim Neary to discuss how APRA changes and the royal commission have resulted in a tighter lending economy and what that means for Australian investors.

They discuss what traps investors should avoid if they are trying to obtain finance, the four key growth drivers in a property market and unpacking trust structures while revealing one type of trust that you should miss.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

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AREAS MENTIONED:

Hobart
Bondi
Deception Bay

 

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Getting finance approved in this tightening lending environment

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