Finance advice

Big bank sounds warning on housing market

By Tim Stewart
Property prices in Australia

Fewer foreign buyers and slower population growth will cause Australian house prices to cool as oversupply sets in — but a housing 'crash' is unlikely, according to a big four bank.

Speaking at an Actuaries Institute seminar in Sydney, NAB global head of research Peter Jolly said Australian residential property prices have appreciated fourfold in the past two decades.

Three factors have driven the increase in house prices, Mr Jolly said: the lowest mortgage rates in history; an influx of foreign buyers; and population growth outstripping the supply of residential dwellings.

While mortgage rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future, the second two factors are definitely "waning", said Mr Jolly.

First, the appetite of Chinese buyers for properties on the eastern seaboard is starting to decrease, he said.

Second, a supply/demand imbalance in Australia's property markets is starting to even out.

"What’s very clear to us is that what was absolutely true five to six years ago, where population had very much outstripped the supply of housing, that is not true at all now," Mr Jolly said.

"In fact, generally it’s closed up across the nation, and there are certain markets that are heading into some oversupply," he said.

Mr Jolly pointed to rising rents across the country as evidence of oversupply. The "most obvious" oversupply is within inner city apartment markets, he said.

"NAB’s view on housing is that we’re going to see the housing markets cool appreciably over the next year or two," he said. "Standalone house price growth rates will slow quite a bit, and we actually see unit prices declining.

"We see much more modest house price gains in most cities, and a bit of a decline or a continued decline in PerthPerth, TAS Perth, WA.

"[We also see] a bit more of a decline in some of the unit markets where we see some very clear oversupply. [That means] parts of Melbourne, parts of Brisbane, and parts of Sydney," Mr Jolly said.

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Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune into this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Many investors who would have been successfully approved for finance last year are struggling now to either begin or continue their property investment journey because of the current financial climate.

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, broker John Manciamelli and Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock joins host Tim Neary to discuss how APRA changes and the royal commission have resulted in a tighter lending economy and what that means for Australian investors.

They discuss what traps investors should avoid if they are trying to obtain finance, the four key growth drivers in a property market and unpacking trust structures while revealing one type of trust that you should miss.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

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Katarina discusses about the team that she had help her along the way, why she thinks that you should never skimp on a good solicitor and accountant, and the red flags which tell her why buying a new property doesn’t necessarily mean buying a better property.

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If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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The different reasons to start rentvesting

 

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Why buying new property doesn’t mean buying better property

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