Finance advice

Young, affluent borrowers most exposed to rate rises

By Reporter
Young, affluent borrowers most exposed to rate rises

Owner-occupied mortgage holders that are young and affluent are more exposed to incremental interest rate rises than any other group of borrowers, new analysis has found

According to mortgage market analysts Digital Finance Analytics, around 20 per cent of borrowers holding an owner-occupied home loan would “have difficulty” paying off loans if the interest rate were to rise by less than 0.5 per cent.

Of this category, "young affluent" borrowers would struggle most, the principal of the analyst company, Martin North, has said.

Writing on his blog, Mr North said: “[A]round 20 per cent [of owner-occupied borrowers] would have difficulty with even a rise of less than 0.5 per cent, whilst an additional 4 per cent would be troubled by a rise between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent, and so on. Around 35 per cent could cope with even a full 7 per cent rise.

“If we overlay our household segments, we find that young growing families and young affluent households are most exposed to a small rate rise… Younger households are relatively more exposed, because their incomes tend to be more limited and are not growing in real terms relative to mortgage repayments.”

According Mr North’s calculations, should interest rates increase by less than 0.5 per cent, the probability of "young affluent" borrowers defaulting on their mortgage repayments over the next 12 months would be 4 per cent. Similarly, "young growing families" had a rate of just under 4 per cent.

However, for rate rises of between 0.5 per cent and 7 per cent, the sensitivity rate was found to be less than 2 per cent across all segments, with "rural families" and the "suburban mainstream" being most vulnerable to default.

If rates were to rise by more than 7 per cent, those classed as "rural families", "disadvantaged fringe" and "battling urban" would be most at risk of default.

On a state-by-state analysis of mortgage sensitivity, Mr North found that - from a loan value perspective - households in NSW were most sensitive to rate changes, with more than 20 per cent of the mortgage value being potentially impacted should there be an interest rate rise of less than 0.5 per cent.

Mr North concluded: “Our household segmentation models highlight that from a value perspective, young affluent and exclusive professionals have a disproportionally large share of value, and a significant proportion of this would be at risk from even a small rise…

“[I]t is essential to look at the mortgage portfolio both from a value and count perspective. But in fact, it is the value-related lens which provides the best view of relative risk. This is how risk capital should be allocated."

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Dominique Grubisa joins host Phil Tarrant to share her personal story which saw her hit rock bottom with excessive debt during the GFC.

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Dominique unpacks how, by relying on her background in law, she was able to overcome that debt and in doing so develop a unique investment strategy which she believes many can utilise today.

Dominique discusses distressed properties, and how she goes about finding them in order to buy property well below market value. She shares the process of identifying distressed properties as well as the controversy surrounding this buying method.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Many investors who would have been successfully approved for finance last year are struggling now to either begin or continue their property investment journey because of the current financial climate.

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, broker John Manciamelli and Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock joins host Tim Neary to discuss how APRA changes and the royal commission have resulted in a tighter lending economy and what that means for Australian investors.

They discuss what traps investors should avoid if they are trying to obtain finance, the four key growth drivers in a property market and unpacking trust structures while revealing one type of trust that you should miss.

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AREAS MENTIONED:

Hobart
Bondi
Deception Bay

 

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Getting finance approved in this tightening lending environment

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