Finance advice

Rate rises will lead to ‘major adjustment’ in housing market: Westpac

By James Mitchell
Housing market, rate rises, house rates, investing, investment, Westpac

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans predicts that if the RBA lifts the cash rate, the housing market will change severely.

Mr Evans is one of the few to forecast that rates are to remain on hold for at least a year. The Westpac chief economist can’t see a rate hike next year, nor in 2019, as the Reserve Bank struggles to achieve its inflation target.

ANZ has tipped two rate hikes next year and NAB believes that the RBA will lift rates by 25 basis points in August and by the same amount again in November. NAB is confident that the cash rate will be lifted by a further 50 basis points in 2019.

This would mean a 2 per cent increase to the current cash rate (1.5 per cent), taking it to what the Reserve Bank has called its “neutral” rate of 3.5 per cent.

According to Mr Evans, if this happens, the real estate market will be in major trouble.

“The RBA believes neutral is 3.5 per cent,” Mr Evans told brokers at a Loan Market lunch in Sydney on Friday (20 October). “That is 200 basis points from where we are today.

“The day they start to raise rates will be very, very damaging. I’m giving you comfort by saying I don’t think it will happen in 2018 or 2019.

“But all the other experts are saying, and the market is saying, that they will. If it does happen, there is going to be a pretty major adjustment in the market. As we saw in Canada.”

House price growth has collapsed in Canada since its central bank raised rates by 50 basis points this year. The monetary policy tightening comes as Canadian banking regulators introduced further macro-prudential measures on lenders.

Mr Evans fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia has no room left to cut rates if the market turns, particularly as rate cuts have historically been used as a lever to stimulate the property market.

The Westpac economist outlined how the central bank “rescued” real estate with rate cuts after prices fell in 2008. This boosted inflation. Rates were then raised, at which point prices in Sydney fell again in 2011. Rates were cut to 2 per cent in 2015, which rejuvenated the market.

“Every time house prices have fallen, the central bank has come to the rescue and cut rates to get prices moving again,” Mr Evans said.

In 2015, the six-month annualised house price growth in Sydney peaked at 25 per cent.

“That’s when the regulator got nervous and said to the banks they can only grow investment book by 10 per cent.

“House price inflation in Sydney collapsed. In May, the RBA cut rates again. They cut again in August and we saw house price inflation take off.”

The chief economist said that this last rate cut made APRA “livid”. Further lending curbs were introduced in March, this time on interest-only mortgages.

Now house price growth in Sydney is trending down.

Mr Evans said: “The worry this time around is rates are at 1.5 per cent. They will not cut rates again. What we don’t know is how the market will evolve when the Reserve Bank is not there to bail you out.

“That presents a big challenge.”

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A softening market can be a difficult time for a property investor with finance approval tightening and property capital growth slowing, and while many real estate agents are also feeling the squeeze McGrath Brighton Le Sands' Bill Tsounias claims it is simply the market returning to normal.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Bill joins host Phil Tarrant to share his thoughts on the current Sydney property market, and to share the shifts that he has seen in house and unit sale prices following their worst quarter in the past decade.

Bill will unpack why properties are spending longer on market, share what he believes property investors are doing wrong when trying to sell their properties and share the secrets to getting the best out of a real estate agent and an auction in the current softening market.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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AREAS MENTIONED:

Revesby
South Hurstville
Sans Souci
Strathfield

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Gavin Kemp and his now-fiancé bought their first property together after only six months of dating. They weren’t even living together at the time. Now, two years on, the pair have bought five properties, sold two and have a solid plan in place for their ongoing property journey. 

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Gavin joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss how he chose the locations where he decided to invest and how, due to the initial lack of education (something that he now values highly), he lost money on his first two investments.

Gavin will share his thoughts on the current property market, reveal the people who he has leaned on throughout his property journey and discuss why his strategy employs a zero procrastination rule.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

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AREAS MENTIONED:

Redcliffe
Port Macquarie
Loganlea
Launceston
Raceview

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A joint property portfolio before they were even living together
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As the investment market tightens are you looking to learn something that will help you realign or readjust your property goals? In this episode of The Smart Property Investment Show, first time on the podcast Lisa Porter joins host Phil Tarrant to talk about the gems and wisdom associated with her modest portfolio of ‘only’ six properties.

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Listen now as Lisa and host Phil Tarrant discuss how her property journey started in the UK, with the purchase of a rough unit in a lower-socio suburb of South London. Lisa breaks down how that first purchase provided her greatest lesson, one she still applies today - turn off the noise, don’t worry too much about the peripheries and just get on with it.

The pair also discuss how property has given Lisa so much extra value in her life, not just building an asset base and heaps of enjoyment, but it also how it changed the trajectory of her career. Women, she says, shouldn’t be fearful of being proactive and taking control of the direction of their family’s financial future.  

 

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Walking and talking property investment with Lisa Porter – therapy, empowerment, education and inspiration

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