RBA may hold rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets tomorrow.

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Last week’s soft data is encouraging the RBA's board to keep rates on hold. Underlying inflation came in below expectations, while credit data was also weak – with business lending particularly soft.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, underlying inflation for the year to September eased to a five year low of 2.4 per cent – dropping to the bottom half of the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target band.

NAB’s group chief economist Alan Oster said based on these results, the board will wait a bit longer for more data to validate their medium term forecast.

“Evidence the economy is growing above trend again should be sufficient for them to hike - a fall in the unemployment rate through 5 per cent on November 11 would satisfy this criteria and make a December 7 rate hike likely,” Mr Oster said.

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