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Sunshine State home seekers give Qld loan values a boost

Queensland has come out on top as the biggest performer in terms of loan value growth, according to CommSec’s latest State of the State report.

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The bank compared each state’s quarterly data for mortgage values (excluding refinancing) against its long-term average, assessing which has made the biggest gains across the decade.

In the Sunshine State, the value of home loans has risen by 15.3 per cent on the long-term average.

The next strongest is South Australia, which has risen 14.9 per cent against its long-term norm. Tasmania comes third with a 10.4 per cent rise, and Western Australia not far behind at 10.2 per cent. Victoria’s loan commitments have risen 8.6 per cent, NSW sees an 8.2 per cent increase, while the ACT’s gain is modest at 2.3 per cent.

The Northern Territory is still the weakest for housing finance with commitments 10.4 per cent lower than its decade average.

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But even with most states recording significant gains in the long term, after the price drops of the past year and a dampened market, each state has seen falls in loan value over 2022’s numbers.

Western Australia takes the lightest hit, though lending is still down 6.9 per cent this year over last. South Australia is also fairly stable, with lending down only 7.7 per cent.

Home loans in NSW are down 9.6 per cent, followed by Queensland, down 9.7 per cent; Tasmania, down 13.9 per cent, and Victoria, down 15.7 per cent.

The ACT and the NT have recorded the biggest fall, with loan values dropping 26.4 per cent and 27.3 per cent respectively.

Queensland may be the state where everyone seems to want to buy, but it’s Tasmania that takes the lead when it comes to building.

Australia’s southernmost state has the highest proportion of new dwelling commencements compared to its decade-long average, with new home starts up 4.8 per cent in Q3.

The rest of the states have recorded drops compared to their long-term history. Queensland still comes in second, though, with new starts 9.8 per cent below its 10-year normal.

NSW takes the third spot with starts down 12.5 per cent, while South Australia is down 16.4 per cent.

Victoria, the ACT and Western Australia have all drifted into worrying territory with new starts down 21 per cent, 32.8 per cent and 33.4 per cent respectively. Meanwhile in the NT, new home construction has seen a 51.4 per cent drop on the decade-long norm.

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From an annual perspective, NSW is the only state to post gains over the year to June 2023. Starts in the state have lifted by 5.3 per cent annually, while starts in Queensland have fallen by 1.1 per cent. Starts in the ACT have fallen most over the year, down 47.6 per cent.


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