Finance advice

Rates to fall in Feb: Index

By webmaster

Consumer confidence is at its lowest level since August, which could encourage the Reserve Bank to review its current stance on rates in February.

According to the latest Westpac Melbourne Institute Index, consumer sentiment fell by 8.3 per cent in DeThe Reserve Bank will be encouraged to cut rates on the back of the lowest consumer confidence since August cember from 103.4 in November to 94.7 in December.

“On face value it should be a surprise that the Index has not risen following a second rate cut from the Reserve Bank (which was eventually passed on in full by the major banks to mortgage borrowers). However the history of previous easing cycles shows that rate cuts do not guarantee an improvement in sentiment,” Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans said.

“Since 1994 we have seen 20 rate cuts including December’s. On 12 occasions the Index has increased following the rate cut and on 8 occasions it has fallen. The likely explanation is that respondents' concerns over the reasons behind the rate cut may overwhelm the perceived benefits of the cut itself.

“For this survey we also ask respondents questions about those news items which they most recall and whether these items are perceived positively or negatively. When interest rates are moving they typically capture considerable attention. For this survey news on interest rates was recalled by 31.5 per cent of respondents whereas economic conditions attracted the attention of 60 per cent; international conditions 55.6 per cent and Budget and taxation 36.9 per cent.

“The news on economic conditions; international conditions and Budget and taxation was considered the most negative since 2008/09. News on interest rates was the most positive since that period.

Despite the positive perception of interest rates, Mr Evans said the confidence of respondents with a mortgage fell by 9.5 per cent.

“Specific news which is likely to have unnerved respondents is the reported increase in the unemployment rate from 5.2 per cent to 5.3 per cent with a loss of 40,000 full time jobs. Of course, the constant stream of news on developments in Europe is also likely to have impacted respondents, while equity markets were volatile,” he said.

“Four of the five components of the Index fell in December. The sub-index tracking views on "economic conditions over the next 12 months" was down by 19.4 per cent; while "economic conditions over the next 5 years" fell by 14.4 per cent; "family finances compared to a year ago" fell by 8.6 per cent although “expectations for family finances over the next 12 months” improved by 3 per cent.”

With sentiment still down and falling, Mr Evans said it is now very likely that the Reserve Bank would look to cut rates again at its February board meeting.

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Tune in to the latest episode of Property Showcase, the podcast with the inside track on the products and businesses that will help turbocharge your portfolio, maximise returns and make your overall investment experience seamless and stress-free!

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To hear more about these services, make sure to tune into this episode of Property Showcase!

 Make sure you never miss an episode by subscribing to us now on iTunes!

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Many investors who would have been successfully approved for finance last year are struggling now to either begin or continue their property investment journey because of the current financial climate.

In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, broker John Manciamelli and Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock joins host Tim Neary to discuss how APRA changes and the royal commission have resulted in a tighter lending economy and what that means for Australian investors.

They discuss what traps investors should avoid if they are trying to obtain finance, the four key growth drivers in a property market and unpacking trust structures while revealing one type of trust that you should miss.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Katarina joins host Tim Neary to unpack her entry into the property market and experiences of rentvesting, and how the Smart Property Investment Show was vital  in a number of decisions which she made along the way.

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More than just bricks and mortar, experts often regard property investment as a ‘game of finance’. As such, a good finance strategy can lead any investor to success.

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Why buying new property doesn’t mean buying better property

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