‘Ingredients in place for Australian housing crash’
With a new report suggesting all signs point to a housing crisis, are property investors faced with a huge cause for concern?
Investment management company Newgate Capital Partners’ May 2016 Analysis of the Australian Residential Market has found that all of the factors that have existed in every historical housing crisis are currently in place in Australia.
“Are the ingredients in place for an Australian housing crash? The answer is unfortunately and unequivocally ‘yes’,” the report said.
According to the report, these factors include high ratios of debt to household income, heavy and sustained house price growth, and a slowing economy.
However, the report said that although these factors are necessary elements of a housing crash, they are not sufficient alone.
“A housing and banking crisis requires a catalyst to change behaviour. This catalyst must ultimately cause credit growth to move into negative territory.”
The two variables that are likely to be the catalysts, according to the report, are wage growth moving into negative territory, and tightening credit conditions.
“If wages growth moves into negative territory it will signal falling household income, which may ultimately translate into house loan defaults.
“We have already seen banks being told by the regulator to crimp lending to investors. This is potentially the beginning of tightening credit conditions.
“Any further evidence of loan growth contraction by the banks will be very concerning.”
Exploring the history of housing crashes, the report clarified some misconceptions about how these catastrophes come to be.
“Housing markets do not ‘crash’ in the traditional sense of the word.
“It is a slow process; it takes, on average, six years for the price correction to occur.”
The report encourages investors who are interested in the future of the Australian housing market to continue to be actively aware of certain movements in the economy.
“Watch the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) monthly wage growth figures. If this data series moves into negative territory, this will flag a reduction in the willingness to borrow.
“Monitor the anecdotal commentary and statements from participants in the financial system. Any evidence that loan approval processes will be tightened is a negative.”
Investors are pointed to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) website for data on credit growth to Australian housing.
“If credit growth moves into negative territory, the Australian housing market may begin its slow correction, with prices falling gradually over many years.”
- <p>Yet the HIA quote affordability at a 5 year high? Population growth is very strong placing pressure on supply, interest rates at historical low values compounded by investment into infrastructure creating tens of thousands of new jobs. Current growth in Capital Cities continue through to May 2016 and the Australian economy continues its growth at 3.1%. This kinda conflicts with your summation </p>0
- <p>This report has missed the biggest trigger of property corrections and crashes in the past and that is a significant rise in unemployment. This in itself does not trigger a property crash but rather triggers a significant erosion in confidence about one's future finances, and hence destroys one's confidence in buying a property. Also a significant rise in interest rates such as in 2009 is another property crash trigger though this could also be counted as a tightening of credit conditions. Neither of these major triggers are on the horizon hence I don't foresee any property crash coming any time soon.</p>0
- <p>So if we have a recession, property prices may drop ... thank you Captain Obvious.</p>0
