Over $337bn property loss predicted due to climate change impact

Using computer models developed at the University of Melbourne and by Climate Risk Pty Ltd, the research found more than 80,000 currently existing residential, commercial and industrial properties would be impacted by sea level rise and storm surges by 2100.

The report warns that failure to address the risks could lead to a damage bill of $40 billion by 2040, which could go up to $337 billion by the end of the century.

Additionally, losses to wetlands would reach a further $105 billion over the same period, bringing the total to $442 billion.

Professor Tom Kompas, from the University of Melbourne, said the community impacts would be wideranging.

“The economic damages from sea level rise and storm surge to coastal areas are more than enough to trigger considerable financial instability for many coastal communities and the state of Victoria itself, not to mention the potential loss of life and damages to food, water supply and environmental assets from sea level rise and storm surge, many aspects of which are not accounted for in our calculations.”

While areas all along Victoria’s more than 2,500 kilomteres of coastline will be affected, the level and type of impact will vary as time progresses, according to the report.

For example, by 2040, more than 16,000 properties in Southbank will be at high risk of damage. However, by 2100, the figures will rise to over 31,000 properties. Meanwhile, Docklands will have more than 3,000 properties at risk by 2040, rising to over 37,000 by 2100.

The report showed that economic losses in residential areas would most occur around Port Phillip Bay (36,815 properties) and east of Melbourne (31,490 properties).

VMaCC chairman Dr Anthony Boxshall said action on climate change would be essential to lessen the impact of rising sea levels.

“We know that climate change is going to hurt many Victorian communities if we do not act,” Dr Boxshall said.

He noted the report “clearly and comprehensively” documents the economic challenges that Victoria’s coastal communities will face from sea level rise and related storm surges.

“Spending on adaptation over the next two decades could help reduce future risk and save significantly on the estimates of future costs,” he added.

In response to the report’s findings, VMaCC and Life Saving Victoria have called for the establishment of an independent taskforce to develop and promote a vision and operational blueprint to guide Victoria’s response to rising sea levels and related storm surge.

Catherine Greaves, chief executive of Life Saving Victoria, said the report provides evidence that underscores an urgent call to action.

“It is important that we engage in thoughtful preparation to effectively address sea level rise and coastal inundation, thereby mitigating risks, while simultaneously safeguarding the natural allure of our pristine coastline and beaches to ensure we cultivate a safe, sustainable legacy for generations to come,” she stated.