Will spring 2023 break a record? September won’t tell

In the capitals, the uptick this year compared to last year was stronger, with new listings rising 5.9 per cent this September compared to September 2022.

Regional areas, meanwhile, saw new listings rise 2.3 per cent over the year.

After August’s numbers appeared so robust, many were expecting the early spring weeks to put on an even bigger show. But as PropTrack economist and the report’s author Anne Flaherty noted, calendar events disrupted some of the momentum.

“After an unseasonably busy end to winter, the number of homes newly listed for sale dipped slightly in September compared to August, due to the impacts of school holidays and a long weekend in a number of states,” she explained.

Some areas did defy the interruptions, however, to record substantial increases in activity.

Sydney saw selling activity pick up the most, with new listings up a staggering 21.3 per cent year-on-year. Melbourne followed with an increase of 10.1 per cent, and Canberra in third at 4.9 per cent.

While the figures out of NSW were substantial, the more moderate rises in other cities and regions were somewhat expected, with the market last year being significantly dampened due to recent and predicted rate rises.

“An improvement in seller sentiment is a key driver behind the annual rise in the number of new listings. This time last year, sentiment among both buyers and sellers was declining, with the market in the midst of one of the most aggressive series of interest rate hikes ever undertaken by the Reserve Bank,” said Ms Flaherty.

“Interest rates are now largely predicted to have reached their peak, having held steady since July. This has supported a recovery in sentiment which, according to realestate.com.au’s Residential Audience Pulse, has recorded a significant jump from the start of the year,” she added.

But while September’s promise may not have quite met expectations this year, Ms Flaherty noted that it’s not unusual for August to outperform the first month of spring.

“While spring is typically the most popular time of year to sell a property, it isn’t uncommon for fewer new listings to be seen in September compared to August, with this occurring during five of the past 10 years.”

All eyes are now on October, as one of the months to generally record a high volume of listings.

“October, in contrast, has consistently recorded a monthly increase in for sale listings over each of the past 10 years, an outcome that may be repeated this year with strong selling conditions in most markets,” Ms Flaherty said.

And with property prices climbing every month in 2023 to reach a peak in September, watchers will also be keeping note of October’s sales figures.