Login
Perth, Brisbane, and Darwin to headline double-digit price growth in 2026
Properties in Perth, Brisbane, and Darwin are tipped to see a year of double-digit value growth in 2026, despite the uncertainty around the cash rate decisions of the RBA, according to the latest data.
While most experts have predicted a market slowdown in 2026, recent KPMG analysis suggests that property prices are set to defy economic uncertainty and maintain the strong momentum from the back end of 2025.
In its most recent Residential Property Market Outlook, KPMG forecast that house values would rise by 7.7 per cent nationwide, with some markets tipped for double-digit growth, despite speculation about the future of cash rate decisions, according to the analysis.
KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said the unexpected strength of the market in 2025 has led to house prices rising far higher than anticipated, supported by inflation and government policies.
“The strong momentum in the first half of 2025 should have moderated as affordability pressures continued to spook buyers,” Rynne said.
“But instead, the second half of last year accelerated growth further, especially in already overheated cities Perth and Brisbane, supported by the expanded 5 per cent deposit scheme.”
Rynne said that even with the lack of housing options available in the capital cities, buyers were willing to pay more “than the supply shortage would justify.”
“As a result, at the entry level, the market will continue outperforming this year, with more young people seizing the opportunity to break the rent cycle and lock in their first home sooner, intensifying competition at the affordable end and ensuring that prices remain firm.”
Perth
Rynne said that Perth would continue its expansion, with house prices forecast to rise by almost 13 per cent over the next 12 months, the biggest change amongst the capital cities.
Units are also anticipated to grow by double digits in 2026, rising by 11.6 per cent.
“Perth continues to record the fastest population growth in the country, and limited housing supply is keeping upward pressure on prices,” Rynne said.
“Still, house prices remain on the more affordable side for first home buyers and the 5 per cent deposit scheme is helping to drive demand.”
While KPMG forecasted a strong 2026, it said that the city of light market would slow significantly in 2027, growing by a more modest 5 per cent for houses and 4 per cent for units.
Brisbane
In contrast to prior predictions of more subdued growth for Brisbane in 2026, Rynne said signs were that the growth would continue for the foreseeable future.
According to KPMG's analysis, Brisbane is tipped to experience double-digit growth, with house prices forecast to rise by 10.9 per cent.
“More and more people are making the move to Brisbane, but as with most other cities, housing supply has not kept pace, amplifying cost pressures,” Rynne said.
He said that, as a result, Brisbane’s growth is expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 months, with house prices rising by a further 8.9 per cent while unit prices grow by 4.9 per cent.
Darwin
According to KPMG modelling, Darwin is the third and final capital city tipped to reach double-digit growth, with houses predicted to rise by 10.5 per cent and units by 13.4 per cent.
Rynne said that with its high level of predicted growth, Darwin has emerged as an investment hotspot.
“Supported by a strong pipeline of infrastructure projects, including the Ship Lift Facility, defence industries, mining-related activities and attractive rental yields, the city is well-positioned for strong growth over the next two years.”
Adelaide
Rynne said house prices are expected to grow by 8.2 per cent and unit prices by 6.6 per cent in 2026, indicating strong growth for Adelaide before slowing in 2027.
According to the data, both house and unit prices are expected to rise by between 3 and 4 per cent in 2027.
“Adelaide is beginning to see affordability issues emerge, which may temper demand and redirect some buyers to more affordable cities such as Melbourne, but supply has also picked up, which will keep growth at a more moderate pace,” Rynne said.
Melbourne
The data predicted that Melbourne would rise by 6.8 per cent for houses and 7.3 per cent in units in 2026, having one of the strongest-performing unit markets nationwide.
“Melbourne’s market started its rebound last year, driven by genuine demand, even as Victoria’s land tax regime continues to weigh on investor activity,” Rynne said
“Melbourne’s comparatively lower price base compared to other capital cities is likely to provide room for further growth and help sustain momentum over the coming years.”
KPMG said that Melbourne would be the only capital to experience stronger housing market growth in 2027 than in 2026.
Sydney
The nation's largest capital is home to its most expensive property market, limiting the scope for significant growth in property values.
With a median price of $1,759,909 according to the latest Domain figures, KPMG’s predicted increase of 5.8 per cent would add almost $100,000 to the city’s price tags, pushing the value over $1.85 million.
Rynne said Sydney’s position as a major hub continues to attract buyers to the city, which, in turn, offsets affordability challenges.
“While the five per cent deposit scheme offers the higher price cap for Sydney of $1.5 million, broadening eligibility, in practice, most first-home buyers are still constrained by borrowing capacity and cannot afford the mortgage required, even at the lower end of the city’s market.”
“As a result, Sydney’s outlook is one of balanced growth this year, underpinned by strong fundamentals, but limited by persistent supply and affordability issues,” Rynne concluded.