Bushfire warning: 500k east coast buildings deemed ‘high risk’ this Summer

The analysis, contained within the PointData Bushfire Risk Index, used artificial intelligence and machine learning to provide a climate impact overlay across the east coast of the country.

And beyond just providing statistics on the number of buildings that are in bushfire-prone areas, the report also crunched the numbers on the potential costs of rebuilds if worst-case scenarios are realised.

The index reported repair and rebuild costs could tally more than $500 billion total, with the report acknowledging the impact this could have on local communities.

PointData founder and CEO, George Giannakodakis, said that “despite the initial relief provided by a wet commencement to summer along the east coast, the enduring threat of bushfire remains strong. The consequences of bushfire risk extend far beyond the immediate devasting impacts, as enduring costs are significant, with our analysis suggesting a risk of more than $504 billion to buildings and structures across NSW, Queensland and Victoria this summer”.

“To put into further context, the impact of bushfire to local, low-density LGAs such as Walcha and Kyogle in NSW, have 69 per cent and 68 per cent respectively, of its buildings and structures deemed at high risk this summer. Similarly, the LGA of Murrindindi in Victoria has 43 per cent of its buildings and structures at high risk,” he flagged.

So, just how at risk is each state?

NSW

• A total of 284,452 buildings and structures “are at a high to very high risk” from fire.
• That equates to 10 per cent of the state’s buildings – and 18.4 per cent of all regional buildings.
• Potential cost to rebuild is almost $250 billion.

The top five LGAs with the highest number of buildings under high to very high risk are:

Hawkesbury – 13,667
Shoalhaven – 13,342
Tamworth – 11,506
Queanbeyan-Palerang – 10,630
Snowy Monaro – 10,274

Queensland

• A total of 108,160 buildings and structures are classified as being at “high to very high risk” from bushfire.
• This equates to 15.2 per cent of buildings across the state – and 8.9 per cent of all regional buildings.
• Costs associated with rebuild could set the state back $111 billion.

The top five LGAs with the highest number of buildings and structures where bushfire risk is high to very high are:

Sunshine Coast – 24,296
Gold Coast – 14,335
Mackay – 5,984
Brisbane – 5,851
Moreton Bay – 4,344

Victoria

• A total 176,329 buildings and structures are at high risk from bushfire.
• That’s a total 6.6 per cent of all the state’s buildings and structures – and 16.7 per cent of all regional buildings and structures.
• Potential rebuild costs could total $144 billion.

The five LGAs with the highest number of buildings and structures under high risk are:

Yarra Ranges – 24,059
Mornington Peninsula – 11,585
Nillumbik – 9,520
East Gippsland – 7,792
Cardinia – 7,636

Reflecting back on the “devastating consequences” of previous bushfire seasons, such as what was seen across 2019 to 2020 “serve as a stark reminder of the potential impact on lives, property and the environment”, Mr Giannakodakis said.

“Adequate planning and understanding the risk on properties and buildings are crucial components of mitigating the potential financial risk of major events,” he advised.