Housing market defies election jitters with price rises
While improved sentiment from the February rate cut saw a third consecutive month of national dwelling value growth in April, the rate of growth is expected to soften over the coming months.
Australian property values recorded a third straight month of growth in April, rising 0.3 per cent over the month and adding approximately $2,720 to the median dwelling value, according to the latest Home Value Index from Cotality.
The report attributed the rise in property values to the positive growth that occurred in every capital city over the month, ranging from growth of 1.1 per cent in Darwin to a 0.2 per cent rise in Sydney and Melbourne.
Although home values lifted over April, Cotality noted that the pace of growth eased slightly from the 0.4 per cent growth recorded in March, linking this reduction to decreased sentiment and lower auction clearance rates over the month.
Tim Lawless, research director for Cotality, said the effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February cash rate cut helped to support more favourable housing market conditions, but noted that this positive influence appears to be “losing some potency”.
“At the same time, household confidence slipped in April, with the US’ ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements and the upcoming federal election causing uncertainty. It is likely this may be causing some buyers and sellers to delay their decisions,” he said.
Lawless highlighted that these uncertainties have been more evident in sales and listing volumes compared to property values, with the decline in market activity compounded by the “super break” many Australians took between the recent Easter and Anzac Day public holidays.
Data from Cotality showed that over the week ending 20 April, just 644 auctions were held across the combined capitals, which aside from COVID-19 impacted periods in 2020, marked the quietest Easter auction week since 2019.
Notably, new listing numbers also declined over the last month, with the 19,650 listings for sale over the four weeks to April 2025 marking the lowest levels for this time of year besides periods that were affected by the pandemic in 2020.
“With further rate cuts likely as soon as May 20th and a level of certainty returning to the market after the federal election on May third, we expect a further modest rise in values for 2025,” Lawless said.
While property values recorded a broad-based rise across the nation, the report showed that not every market grew to new record heights over April, with only the mid-sized capital cities of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth reaching new peaks for home values.
Contrastingly, property values in Sydney during April registered 1.1 below the city’s September 2024 high, with Melbourne down 11.1 per cent compared to the record peak of March 2022.
Notably, the report showed that growth in house values has continued to outpace the unit sector, with the past three months seeing the value of houses rise 1.1 per cent across the combined capitals, more than doubling the 0.5 per cent lift in the unit sector.
The difference in growth between property types was most evident in Sydney, where house values went up 1.4 per cent over the rolling quarter compared to the 0.3 per cent fall in unit values over the same period.
While Melbourne and Adelaide saw roughly even performances for houses and units over the rolling quarter, the Hobart market registered the greatest disparity between property types, with houses rising 1.4 per cent compared to the 1.1 per cent fall in units.
Despite the growth in property values over April, the annual pace of gains slowed to 3.2 per cent nationally during April, marking the slowest annual rise since the 12 months ending August 2023.
Cotality noted that the loss in momentum over the most recent month was reflective of the persistent slowdown in property value growth seen during mid-2024 and early 2025 and culminated in the falls that occurred during the three months to January 2025.
Although the monthly pace of gains turned positive in February due to the effects of the RBA’s interest rate cut, Tim Lawless forecast that this shift was likely short-lived.
“Given the softer trajectory of growth through last year, it’s likely the annual pace of gains will continue to soften over the coming months, despite the positive inflection in values since February,” Lawless said.