Prices up, budgets down: Brisbane and Perth homes to jump $50k+

Meanwhile, the findings showed Brisbane’s median house price is projected to rise by $54,919 to $1.26 million, with ANZ forecasting a 9.7 per cent rise this year.

They also showed that prices in Sydney and Melbourne were likely to see a different outcome, with both recording drops this year and on track for further modest declines through to the end of 2026.

Sydney is forecast to drop by $2,139 to $1,599,643, while Melbourne’s house prices will likely see a fall of $7,826 by the end of the year.

As for the other capitals, Darwin has been projected to experience a $36,686 increase, Adelaide a $19,653 increase, Hobart house prices a $4,591 boost, and Canberra a more modest $1,039 increase.

As prices are expected to rise across multiple cities, ANZ economists have observed that rising interest rates have reduced the maximum amount people can borrow from banks, but a lack of stock will keep demand stable.

According to Canstar analysis, a single person earning an average full-time wage could potentially borrow $24,800 less from the bank following the February and March rate hikes.

It also found that three more 0.25-percentage-point cash rate hikes this year could shrink the same person’s buying budget by $58,700.

Canstar data insights director, Sally Tindall, said the property market was seeing a tug-of-war between how much the bank would lend and buyers’ demand for housing.

“The rate hikes have pushed Sydney house prices to their limit, at least for now, which, at a median price of $1.6 million, is far from surprising,” she said.

“Already, in Sydney, Cotality data has recorded a 0.6 per cent drop from the start of the year for houses.”

Tindall said a recent nosedive in consumer confidence amid the war in the Middle East, along with predictions that demand will continue to cool in many previously hot property markets, will lead to a further decline in prices.

She said while buyers will be pleased to hear about falling prices in some cities, many budgets had dropped by far more than the fall in median house prices in Sydney and Melbourne.

Meanwhile, she said Brisbane and Perth property prices were hurtling towards becoming out of reach for many.

“The danger is, people will borrow to the limit, banking on prices continuing to climb. If circumstances change – whether that’s interest rates, job security or the economy – it could leave some households overexposed,” Tindall concluded.

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