Promoted Content

The next city to boom and it could be bigger than Sydney!

By Simon Pressley

Promoted by Propertyology

Sydney’s property market has already cooled and Melbourne’s is expected to be not too far behind however, a leading property market analyst forecasts that a bigger property boom is about to unfold elsewhere.

According to national property market research firm Propertyology, Hobart has the potential for price growth to push past 20 per centduring the 2018 calendar year - well above the best years produced by both Sydney and Melbourne during their boom and the highest annual price of any capital city for 10 years.

“Hobart’s growth cycle today is comparable to where Sydney was in 2014. All of the metrics which we analyse suggest that, all things being equal,the 15 per cent price growth from 2017 will be surpassed in 2018 and that there’s currently no end in sight,” said Propertyology Head of Market Research, Simon Pressley.

Sydney and Melbourne have concluded their fifth strong year whereas Hobart’s growth cycle didn’t commence until 2016. Both Domain and Core Logic confirmed that Hobart was Australia’s best performer in 2017.

“Hobart has an enormous head of steam. The number of properties listed for sale now is less than half what was available a few years ago. Our buyer’s agents have missed out on numerous properties to people who have been prepared to pay up to 10 per cent more than us. It’s like a flock of seagulls fighting over a chip,” Pressley said.

Of the seven city councils which make up Greater-Hobart, Clarence, Glenorchy, Hobart City, and Kingborough are the best markets.

Affordability and the significant improvement in Tasmania’s economy are driving housing demand while supply is incredibly tight.

“Most Australians don’t realise that Hobart’s increase in job volumes over the last 12 months is 4 times the national average and more than double that of the next best capital city. Tasmania is building an international reputation for world-class agriculture, unique tourism experiences, and advanced manufacturing. Hobart is also a university city. The economy is firing up,” Pressley said.

After correctly anticipating the resurgence of Tasmania’s economy, Propertyology commenced actively investing in Hobart property in 2014. “The transformation has already been remarkable and we feel that few people appreciate that even more exciting times are ahead. The pipeline of infrastructure and major job-creating projects is diverse and extensive,”Pressley says.

Big international brands like Hyatt, Marriott, Fragrance Group and others are expected to commence work on several new luxury hotels over the next year or two. There are plans to extend the Hobart airport runway to accommodate direct flights from Asia, which has already produced record volumes of visitors from business delegates and tourists to Tasmania.

The state’s biggest tourist attraction, Museum of Old and New Art (MONA), has plans for jaw-dropping expansions that include a luxury hotel wing that hangs over the Derwent River and a high-roller casino.

Submissions have been sought for a multi-billion dollar proposal to redevelopment waterfront land in Hobart’s heart, Macquarie Point, in to an iconic cultural precinct that will draw people from all over the world for a truly unique experience.

Other major job ceating projects include a $700 million upgrade of the state’s biggest hospital, a new university, and a $400 million technology hub in the CBD with facilities for up to 3,000 students.

Greater-Hobart’s population growth rate of 0.9 per cent in 2016 was higher than New South Wales’ Central Coast and Adelaide.

“Housing demand in Australia’s most affordable capital city is largely driven by local confidence from the rapid job improvement. Now that the capital growth is there for all to see, mainland investors are appreciating that Australia’s highest rental yields mean that the cost to hold a property in Hobart is effectively nothing,” Pressley said.

Hobart’s vacancy rate of 0.4 per cent is the lowest on record for any capital city. Mr Pressley believes that rental pressure will intensifying even further. Whereas big cities like Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are now seeing record volumes of new supply hitting the market, Propertyology refers to the low building approval volumes in Hobart.

 

With a median house price that is approximately one third of Sydney’s, Hobart is a considerably less risky bricks-and-mortar proposition.

“Hobart is the only location in Australia which has the combination of an affordable entry price, an economy which is already strong (and still improving), hardly any impact on investor’s annual cash flow, and a tight supply pipeline for as far as the eye can see,” Pressley said.

“The 15 per cent headline capital growth rate over the last 12 months is dragged down by the lower rates of growth in Hobart’s urban fringe. With rates of supply tighter than anything we’ve seen, it’s quite conceivable that property prices in metropolitan Hobart could exceed 20 per cent next year and beyond,” Pressley said.

 

Hobart Market Fundamentals

  • Most affordable capital city in Australia
  • 35 per cent price growth already occurred in metro-Hobart across 3-years ending June 2017
  • Highest rental yields of all capital cities
  • 4 per cent vacancy rate is 4x tighter than Sydney and Melbourne (potentially the lowest ever for any capital city)
  • Building approval trendsare lower than mainland capital cities, suggesting the supply pipeline will remian extremely tight for some years yet
  • The rate of improvement in Hobart’s unemployment rate is far superior to every other capital city
  • Employment volume growth is 4x the national average (twice as good as next best capital city)
  • Job advertisements are at an all-time high
  • Tasmania’s growth in international visitors and visitor spending is Australia’s highest
  • Population trend has rebounded strongly
  • Significant pipeline of job-creating major projects
  • Growing interntional reputation for premium produce, unique tourism experiences, and advanced manufacturing

 

Propertyology is a national property market researcher and buyer’s agency. The multi-award-winning firm’s success includes being a finalist in the 2017 Telstra Business Awards and 2016 winner of Small Residential Agency of the Year in REIQ Awards For Excellence. Managing Director Simon Pressley is a REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee and a three-time winner of the REIA and REIQ Buyers Agent of the Year award.

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  ["title"]=>
  string(88) "‘Common’ referrer practice of being paid on both sides of the fence coming to an end"
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The practice of property investment firms sharing undisclosed kickbacks among the supply chain involved in development sales will be outlawed in NSW on 1 July this year under the Real Estate Reform being handed down by regulators in NSW.

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Property commentator and valuer, Suburbanite’s Anna Porter, said the reform will address conflicts of interest.

She said they arise when a mortgage broker, accountant or financial planner receives part of the commission from the property firm, who receive their fees from the developer or seller.

“This puts the broker into a position by which they are being paid on both sides of the fence,” she said.

“Until now this has been a grey area and there was nothing stopping this practice.” 

Ms Porter said this has been a common practice in the industry.

"Some well-known mortgage broking firms openly admit to receiving $5,000–$10,000 per referral in their pocket.”

She also said this process has been going on for decades.

"Property investment firms commonly pass some of their commission on to the mortgage broker, accountant or financial planner as a reward to them for passing on the referral. This means that many brokers or financial service providers are making significant amounts of money just to refer on to a property firm, often totalling hundreds of thousands of dollars a year," Anna Porter said.

Ms Porter said the Property, Stock and Business Agents Amendment (Property Industry Reform) Bill 2017 will be in force from July this year, and will prohibit this practice unless the broker or referring partner also holds a real estate industry license.

"Under the new laws, if the broker takes a referral fee from the property firm, they will have to be a licensed real estate agent and also hold a corporation’s license,” she said. 

“Subsequently, every transaction that they receive a referral fee from, they will be putting their license up against the transaction and taking full liability for the conduct, practices and outcome of that transaction, even if they have little to do with the transaction; they are a party to it financially and therefore take as much risk as everyone else in the transaction.”

Mr Porter said where a referrer holds a real estate license, and receives a part of the sale commission, they may find themselves in breach of the ethical requirements under the act.

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  string(196) "

New data from Mortgage Choice shows that property buyers continue to choose variable rate home loan products, as demand for fixed rate home loans fell for the eighth consecutive month. 

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According to the company’s latest national home loan approval data, variable rate home loans accounted for over 82 per cent of all home loans written throughout May 2018 — up over 2 per cent from the month prior, and almost 7 per cent higher than the 12-month average.

Mortgage Choice CEO, Susan Mitchell, said this trend will continue as borrowers develop apathy towards the RBA’s stagnant cash rate.

“Indeed, we continue to see borrowers opt for the flexible nature of variable rate home loans which may offer a redraw facility, offset accounts and the ability to make extra repayments. These features are not typically associated with fixed rate loans.

“While a fixed rate product provides repayment certainty, variable home loan rates have been relatively stable for a prolonged period of time giving borrowers little incentive to fix.”

This week’s Housing Finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics found that 52,116 home loans were approved throughout April, down 1.4 per cent from the previous month.

Ms Mitchell said she is unsurprised that the value of investment loans dipped — falling 0.9 of a percentage point to $10.7 billion in April.

She said this could reflect tighter lending standards and serviceability policies.

“However, May data may show an increase in investment loans following APRA lifting the cap on investor loan growth at the end of April,” said Ms Mitchell.

Ms Mitchell also noted that the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner-occupied housing finance commitments rose to 17.6 per cent in April 2018, from 13.7 per cent in January 2018.

“This increase is significant and first home buyers seem to be propping up the market.”

Ms Mitchell said she expected home loan demand would be maintained.

“[Due to] a combination of factors, such as historically low interest rates, easing property prices and access to FHOGs.”

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Buyer ‘apathy’ behind mortgage preferences
object(stdClass)#1195 (52) {
  ["id"]=>
  string(5) "18158"
  ["title"]=>
  string(57) "The benefits of investing in a decreasing property market"
  ["alias"]=>
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  ["introtext"]=>
  string(150) "

The Australian property market is arguably in a softening phase, and this can have both positive and negative effects for property investors.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment show, Real Estate Gym’s Tom Panos joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss how investors can take advantage of this decreasing market by leveraging off of the reduced urgency in the sales process.  He also discusses the importance of researching up to date sales data before investing and looks at the state of the Australian property market as a whole.

With many property investors also selling property throughout their journey Tom reveals the best months to buy property in Australia, shares his thoughts on why an auction is not always the best method of sale and how as a purchasing decision it can lead to over-paying.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

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Hobart

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The benefits of investing in a decreasing property market

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