Promoted by Propertyology.
It’s not out of the question for property market history to be created this year.
The last capital city to push through the 20 per cent threshold in a single year was Darwin (22.2 per cent) in 2007 and there’s a good chance that this longstanding record could be broken in 2018.
In spite of Darwin’s recent woes, the Top End has produced double-digit price growth more times than any other Australian capital city since the turn of this century – 10 times, the last being 12.1 per cent in the 2012 calendar year.
The multi-award-winning buyers agency and one of Australia’s most respected research firms, Propertyology, believes that Hobart has potential to become the first capital city to produce 20 per cent property price growth in 11 years.
After price growth of 9.8 per cent in 2016 and 12.3 per cent in 2017 (the highest in Australia), Greater-Hobart is currently the run-away hottest property market in Australia.
Hobart was the only capital city to produce positive price growth during the March quarter. Metropolitan-Hobart is currently experiencing price growth of 16 per cent. There is currently no end in sight for the current growth cycle. All things being equal, Hobart could push through 20 per cent growth in 2018 and 2019.
Hobart’s buyer demand is being driven by the state’s strong economy, high local confidence, housing affordability, record interstate migration levels, and extremely tight housing supply.
2007 was a particularly prosperous year for Australian real estate with every capital city other than Sydney producing double-digit price growth.
7 out of 8 capitals produced double-digit growth in 2002 and then all 8 capitals did it again in 2003.
As for that 20 per cent per year milestone, Sydney last broke it in 2002 (22.9 per cent), Brisbane (22 per cent) and Hobart (32 per cent) last did it in 2004, and Adelaide’s median house price increased by 21.5 per cent in 2003.
Over in the west, Melbourne came close in 2001 (19 per cent) and 2007 (18.2 per cent).had consecutive years of in excess of 20 per cent in 2005 and 2006. Canberra also had back-to-back years in 2002 and 2003.
During the recent Sydney and Melbourne boom, the highest rates of growth were 15.5% and 13.7%, respectively. Both occurred in the 2016 calendar year.
But it’s never always rosy. We only have to look back to 2011 when 8 out of 8 capital cities declined in value. 5 out of 8 declined again in 2012.
Right here, right now, Propertyology believes that the locations that offer the best potential for the next 3-5 years are in non-capital cities.
Australia’s only market analyst to correctly forecast Hobart’s current boom says that their buyer’s agents are currently active in a few different locations across Australia which offer the important combination of affordability, economic growth, rising local confidence, and sensible volumes of housing supply.