Promoted Content

The science behind property market forecasting

By Simon Pressley
Property market forecasting

Promoted by Propertyology.

The frequent inaccuracy of property market forecasts by banks and economists (the world’s biggest generalisers) is cause for taking much of what they say with a grain of salt.

In about October every year, national market analysts forecast where they think each major capital city is headed in the calendar year ahead.

Those predictions are based on an understanding of a number of variables however, most analysts tend to rely too heavily on current market activity if you ask me.

Don’t get me wrong, forecasting is difficult. Can you think of anything more difficult than trying to predict human behaviour?

Plus, those of us who are prepared to publish our forecasts risk facing public ridicule when it’s proven that the crystal ball didn’t work.

The reality is that no one is always right!

But, before even reaching the half way point of this year, several analysts had already slashed their initial predictions for several capital cities. The thing is, there’s been no material change to market fundamentals since late last year. The only reason for adjusting their forecasts is that, yet again, their initial assessment was out of whack.

This chart is a summary of what several of Australia’s biggest profile anlaysts, including Propertyology, forecast for capital cities in 2018.

While several analysts appeared to believe that the price decline that commenced in Sydney in August 2017 would bounce back and that Melbourne would remain strong, we considered that to be wishful thinking more than anything.

When Propertyology published its 2018 capital city forecasts in October 2017, we felt that zero growth was probable for Sydney and PerthPerth, TAS Perth, WA, that Darwin’s three-year decline would accelerate lower, Hobart would have another stellar year with growth in the mid-to-high teens, and the other capital cities would be bunched together on two to five per cent growth for the year.

As I mentioned, current activity is a factor in forecasting, but the art is to look beyond what is actually occurring within a market and focus more on the numerous factors that influence change within a market. Propertyology’s aim is to anticipate what might happen next. We are trying to join the dots of a dozen or so moving parts.

Nationally,these include potential interest rate fluctuations, credit policy, what the Australian dollar might do,the tone of the mainstream media, and implications of any new tax policies.

Then there are international considerations: what will China, Trump, or North Korea do? Plus, there’s economic knock-on effects from things like trade agreements and commodity prices to consider, too.

If that wasn’t enough, state and individual city factors are then taken in to account. Things like election promises, property initiatives such as grants and stamp duty changes, housing supply (current and in the pipeline), migration trends, local sentiment, industry trends, job trajectories, and major projects.

Easy-peasy? I wish!

In attempting to join all of these moving parts together we are painting a “picture”(positive, negative or unchanged) of a chosen market in the foreseeable future.

It’s a science, but it’s by no means an exact science.

Resisting the temptation to focus solely on current market performance and more on factors likely to influence change enabled Propertyology to forecast a [2013] recovery in capital city property markets following two years of price declines.

It’s why [in 2014] we disagreed with the masses who claimed Brisbane was set to follow in Sydney’s footsteps and boom. And, it’s also how we correctly forecast Perth’s prolonged trough before its downturn occurred [2015].

This current underwhelming performance of seven out of eight capital city markets was anticipated by Propertyology a few years ago [2015].

That’s not to say we are perfect though. For example, in 2016 we released a research report urging investors to be cautious about Melbourne’s property market.

We expressed concern that the loss oftens of thousands of car manufacturing jobs and an all-time record housing supply pipeline might have. Our report stated that ‘…2017 and 2018 look particularly bleak…’ for Melbourne. What we didn’t count on at the time was a huge influx of interstate migrants from Western Australian to Melbourne. Maybe we were overly cautious. Or maybe history will just prove that our forecast was just 12 months ahead of its time (Melbourne’s downturn officially commenced in December 2017).

Propertyology’sthirst for joining dots, as opposed to merely adopting the consensus view, is done out of sincere passion for helping everyday Aussies to make informed property investment decisions.

Arguably our proudest legacy of our daily commitment to this process was our ability to forecast Hobart’s property market upswing when [in 2014] absolutely no one else did.

During a post-GFC era when there’s been very few locations throughout Australia where property markets have been strong, the university city of Hobart and newly-found tourism hotspot has emerged from recession to become one of Australia’s strongest economies and officially the nation’s best-performed property market for a couple of years (and counting).

Our motivation for investing significant resources on analysing markets is not about bragging rights or to win a glorified “tipping competition”.

Whereas most, if not all, other market analysts are forecasting markets for general commentary purposes, Propertyology is doing so because we are actively investing – every day – across different parts of Australia!

Propertyology’s skill in being able to correctly join the dots enabled dozens of people to invest in Hobart WELL BEFORE the boom and thereby benefit from 100 per cent of the growth cycle. We stopped investing in Hobart in 2016 and began focusing our attention on several exciting non-capital city markets.

Every day, our multi-award-winning buyers agents now get asked “where’s the next Hobart?”

To learn how Propertyology can help you find the right property, in the right location, at the right price, contact us now.

 

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podcast

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With the softening market impacting property values in many parts of Australia, Sally Dale, Opteon state director for NSW, ACT and Qld joins us to discuss the importance of valuations in the current property market

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Joining host Phil Tarrant, Sally will draw on her 25 years of experience in valuation and discuss the processes involved in arriving at a value for a particular property. She will also share how that process differs between commercial and residential properties and the difficulties which regional property valuations can present.

Sally will unpack the importance and cost of regular valuations on your properties, discuss whether presentation and owner input can sway a valuation and share what you should look for when seeking a reputable property valuer.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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A softening market can be a difficult time for a property investor with finance approval tightening and property capital growth slowing, and while many real estate agents are also feeling the squeeze McGrath Brighton Le Sands' Bill Tsounias claims it is simply the market returning to normal.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Bill joins host Phil Tarrant to share his thoughts on the current Sydney property market, and to share the shifts that he has seen in house and unit sale prices following their worst quarter in the past decade.

Bill will unpack why properties are spending longer on market, share what he believes property investors are doing wrong when trying to sell their properties and share the secrets to getting the best out of a real estate agent and an auction in the current softening market.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Top 100 ranked agent Bill Tsounias shares the secrets to getting the best deal in a softening market
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Gavin Kemp and his now-fiancé bought their first property together after only six months of dating. They weren’t even living together at the time. Now, two years on, the pair have bought five properties, sold two and have a solid plan in place for their ongoing property journey. 

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Gavin joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss how he chose the locations where he decided to invest and how, due to the initial lack of education (something that he now values highly), he lost money on his first two investments.

Gavin will share his thoughts on the current property market, reveal the people who he has leaned on throughout his property journey and discuss why his strategy employs a zero procrastination rule.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Launceston
Raceview

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They weren’t even living together at the time. 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A joint property portfolio before they were even living together

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