Finance advice

RBA announces official cash rate call

By Lucy Dean
RBA, cash rate, interest, money

The Reserve Bank of Australia has made its official interest rate call for July following its monthly board meeting.

The RBA met industry expectations today, announcing its decision to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5 per cent for July. The cash rate last moved in August 2016, shifting down to the current rate.

All 34 experts on the finder.com.au panel correctly predicted a ‘hold’ verdict, but of those, 88 per cent predict the next cash rate move will be an increase. Of the 440 brokers surveyed by HashChing, 88.29 per cent also correctly predicted a hold verdict.

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver said: “While downside risks to the growth and inflation outlook have increased, the RBA remains upbeat that growth will pick up particularly after recent solid jobs data. It probably also remains wary as to whether the Sydney and Melbourne property markets have really started to cool or not.”

Paul Dales of Capital Economics predicted the rate would hold and that a rate hike was not in the near future: “While the recent improvement in the labour market has quashed talk of further rate cuts, weak underlying inflation will prevent the RBA from hiking rates until 2019.”

CoreLogic head of research, Tim Lawless anticipated a hold verdict, pointing to upbeat labour market reports and a falling unemployment rate: “A steady cash rate from the RBA against increasingly hawkish sentiments in Europe and the US stands to put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.”

The housing market is “showing signs” of a slowdown, Mr Lawless said, but added that he expects mortgage rates to continue to rise despite the steady cash rate. “Slower housing market conditions and improvements in employment markets are certainly positive outcomes, however if wages growth and inflation remain subdued we can expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the short term.”

Nicholas Gruen of Lateral Economics, and Saul Eslake and Steven Milch of Suncorp Group predicted two or more rate rises in 2018, falling in line with ex-RBA member John Edwards’ recent assertion that the RBA will hike rates eight times in the next two years.

Ex-RBA member John Edwards last week predicted a series of eight rate hikes over 2018 and 2019, bringing the official cash rate to 3.5 per cent, however Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics has predicted the opposite, suggesting the rate in June 2018 could be sitting at 0.75 per cent.

Mr Koukoulas predicted a hold verdict for July but suspected a rate cut could be in the pipeline for September or October this year. He pointed to a “tapering” housing market and subdued consumer spending as contributing factors.

The team at HashChing were also dubious about Mr Edwards’ claim, with 78.16 per cent of those surveyed disagreeing with his theory of eight rate hikes in two years.

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With the softening market impacting property values in many parts of Australia, Sally Dale, Opteon state director for NSW, ACT and Qld joins us to discuss the importance of valuations in the current property market

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Joining host Phil Tarrant, Sally will draw on her 25 years of experience in valuation and discuss the processes involved in arriving at a value for a particular property. She will also share how that process differs between commercial and residential properties and the difficulties which regional property valuations can present.

Sally will unpack the importance and cost of regular valuations on your properties, discuss whether presentation and owner input can sway a valuation and share what you should look for when seeking a reputable property valuer.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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A softening market can be a difficult time for a property investor with finance approval tightening and property capital growth slowing, and while many real estate agents are also feeling the squeeze McGrath Brighton Le Sands' Bill Tsounias claims it is simply the market returning to normal.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Bill joins host Phil Tarrant to share his thoughts on the current Sydney property market, and to share the shifts that he has seen in house and unit sale prices following their worst quarter in the past decade.

Bill will unpack why properties are spending longer on market, share what he believes property investors are doing wrong when trying to sell their properties and share the secrets to getting the best out of a real estate agent and an auction in the current softening market.

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If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Gavin Kemp and his now-fiancé bought their first property together after only six months of dating. They weren’t even living together at the time. Now, two years on, the pair have bought five properties, sold two and have a solid plan in place for their ongoing property journey. 

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Gavin joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss how he chose the locations where he decided to invest and how, due to the initial lack of education (something that he now values highly), he lost money on his first two investments.

Gavin will share his thoughts on the current property market, reveal the people who he has leaned on throughout his property journey and discuss why his strategy employs a zero procrastination rule.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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A joint property portfolio before they were even living together

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