Finance advice

What’s the rate tipping point to stop investors?

By Sasha Karen
A man in a suit looks off the edge of a cliff with binoculars

With the RBA rate maintaining at its historic low of 1.5 per cent, it’s likely we won’t see a rate change in the next 12 months. However, when we do see an increase, how high will rates need to go to stop investors?

According to RiskWise Property Review founder Doron Peleg, the current cash rate has facilitated current property investors over the last five years.

“The share of property investors has significantly increased during the past five years and have had a major impact on the increased dwelling prices in our major capital cities,” Mr Peleg said.

If there are any cash rate increases, Mr Peleg said large numbers of property investors could pull out of the market.

RiskWise and Mr Peleg have looked at gross rental returns, and the amount required to service a discounted variable loan, based on an 80 per cent LVR, to create the Surplus/Shortfall Ratio (SSR), to determine how high rates need to go in order for investor activity to decline.

The research also assessed the correlation between the SSR and the rate of investors in the market as a percentage of all property buyers to see changes in median dwelling prices, as well as the estimated SSR equilibrium points for property prices to increase, decrease and remain unchanged.

RiskWise’s research determined a link between the SSR and the number of investors currently in the market, with Mr Peleg saying that the higher the ratio, the larger number of investors in the market.

The research was focused on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as RiskWise Property Review determined these states were the only markets with strong investor activity that could shape the whole market.

Equilibrium points were identified to show how high and how low interest rates have to be in order to push investors out of the market. The levels were chosen, according to Mr Peleg, because high interest rates cause higher out-of-pocket expenses due to believing in the chance for higher rents or a falling interest rate, and low interest rates create a cautious atmosphere and struggle with justifying higher rents.

In order to reach the equilibrium points and push investors out of the market, Mr Peleg says at a change of 0.5 per cent, investors in NSW would be impacted.

“While NSW has enjoyed a very strong capital growth, the SSR ratio is relatively low.

However, the impact on different areas in NSW is projected to be different: units in the outer suburbs are projected to be more impacted than units in well established areas,” Mr Peleg said.

Meanwhile, a change of 1 per cent is predicted to impact investors in Victoria.

“Due to a very large number of units in the pipeline and a larger number of ‘Danger Zones’, the impact is projected to be greatly varied across the state,” said Mr Peleg.

“Units in the ‘Danger Zones’ are projected to be greatly impacted even by a couple of interest rate changes. However, houses in the inner and middle rings of Melbourne are projected to enjoy strong demand, as investors are more aware to the low risk and high capital growth that these properties deliver.”

Queensland, by comparison, has the largest margin to deal with interest rates, with a predicted change of 1.5 per cent.

“The pattern of the impact on units in inner Brisbane is projected to be very significant, while the impact on houses in well-established areas will only be limited.”

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Purchasing their first property 15 years ago with the intention of creating a property portfolio which would see them comfortably supported during their retirement, Max and Jeanette Schudeboom now have a portfolio of 13 properties.

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Max and Jeanette joins  host Phil Tarrant to discuss their property journey, compare the Australian market to Max’s home town of Holland, and share their plans to maintain the size of their portfolio.

The pair also unpack how they manage and finance their portfolio, discuss the process they go through when choosing where to invest, and share the tips learned from 15 years as property investors.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

Two components of good investment research
How this investor diversified her property portfolio
Should rentvestors eventually buy a principal place of residence?

AREAS MENTIONED:

Castle Hill
Point Cook
Elizabeth East
Huntfield Heights
Mt Warren Park
Albury
Cambridge Park
Penrith
Braemar
Morayfield
Melbourne
Mill Park
Edens Landing

 

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What 15 years in property investment teaches you
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Property investors are now able to identify and bid on auctions remotely using a new live-streaming functionality launched by Gavl.

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Called “Request an Auction”, the new functionality enables users to watch and bid on any Sydney or Melbourne auction remotely.

Through Gavl, prospective buyers are now able to register to bid on their preferred auction. The platform will obtain permission from the listing agent and confirm within 48 hours.

Vendors can also request to have their auctions broadcast to a larger buyer audience.

Co-founder Joel Smith said that auctions streamed on Gavl attract 47 per cent more viewers than traditional ones.

He said that Request an Auction will be valuable for remote buyers.

“Buyers are able to have Gavl attend any auction they nominate, so they will never have to miss out on an opportunity due to logistical complications in physically attending the auction.

“Vendors, too, have the opportunity to directly book an auction with us, so they can open up their event to buyers all around the world. With more potential buyers, they’re giving their property the chance to receive more bids and maximise their sales result.”

Mr Smith said that prior to the Request an Auction app, buyers were limited to what they could achieve through the Gavl technology.

Gavl is a live-streaming and bidding platform for real estate auctions.

Mr Smith said that it has streamed more than 6,000 auctions, which have achieved 3.5 million views from 50 countries.

Gavl’s Request an Auction function is currently being offered in Melbourne and Sydney only.

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Boost for investors as app sets up off-site bidding
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Having to split her time between Hong Kong and her original base of Sydney has not slowed Julia Tita’s goal of building a high-performance Australian property portfolio. Instead the resulting alterations to her strategy have positively impacted her investing success.

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Having recently purchased her 6th property, Julia joins host Tim Neary to discuss her journey, share her ups and downs over the years, and reveal her thoughts on why some properties are better than others.

Julia also explains why she no longer makes a move without the help of a buyer’s agent, why working with a strong team of specialists is extremely important and discloses her long-term property ambitions.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

RELATED AREAS OF INTEREST:

Why is Australian property so unaffordable?
Brisbane infrastructure attracts international interest
Going global
Australia desirable to foreign investors

AREAS MENTIONED:

Eagleby
Charters Towers
Townsville
Brisbane
Paddington
Sydney
Orange
Melbourne 
Glen Iris
Bondi

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How a move to Hong Kong impacted Julia’s Australian property goals

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