Finance advice

What’s the rate tipping point to stop investors?

By Sasha Karen
A man in a suit looks off the edge of a cliff with binoculars

With the RBA rate maintaining at its historic low of 1.5 per cent, it’s likely we won’t see a rate change in the next 12 months. However, when we do see an increase, how high will rates need to go to stop investors?

According to RiskWise Property Review founder Doron Peleg, the current cash rate has facilitated current property investors over the last five years.

“The share of property investors has significantly increased during the past five years and have had a major impact on the increased dwelling prices in our major capital cities,” Mr Peleg said.

If there are any cash rate increases, Mr Peleg said large numbers of property investors could pull out of the market.

RiskWise and Mr Peleg have looked at gross rental returns, and the amount required to service a discounted variable loan, based on an 80 per cent LVR, to create the Surplus/Shortfall Ratio (SSR), to determine how high rates need to go in order for investor activity to decline.

The research also assessed the correlation between the SSR and the rate of investors in the market as a percentage of all property buyers to see changes in median dwelling prices, as well as the estimated SSR equilibrium points for property prices to increase, decrease and remain unchanged.

RiskWise’s research determined a link between the SSR and the number of investors currently in the market, with Mr Peleg saying that the higher the ratio, the larger number of investors in the market.

The research was focused on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as RiskWise Property Review determined these states were the only markets with strong investor activity that could shape the whole market.

Equilibrium points were identified to show how high and how low interest rates have to be in order to push investors out of the market. The levels were chosen, according to Mr Peleg, because high interest rates cause higher out-of-pocket expenses due to believing in the chance for higher rents or a falling interest rate, and low interest rates create a cautious atmosphere and struggle with justifying higher rents.

In order to reach the equilibrium points and push investors out of the market, Mr Peleg says at a change of 0.5 per cent, investors in NSW would be impacted.

“While NSW has enjoyed a very strong capital growth, the SSR ratio is relatively low.

However, the impact on different areas in NSW is projected to be different: units in the outer suburbs are projected to be more impacted than units in well established areas,” Mr Peleg said.

Meanwhile, a change of 1 per cent is predicted to impact investors in Victoria.

“Due to a very large number of units in the pipeline and a larger number of ‘Danger Zones’, the impact is projected to be greatly varied across the state,” said Mr Peleg.

“Units in the ‘Danger Zones’ are projected to be greatly impacted even by a couple of interest rate changes. However, houses in the inner and middle rings of Melbourne are projected to enjoy strong demand, as investors are more aware to the low risk and high capital growth that these properties deliver.”

Queensland, by comparison, has the largest margin to deal with interest rates, with a predicted change of 1.5 per cent.

“The pattern of the impact on units in inner Brisbane is projected to be very significant, while the impact on houses in well-established areas will only be limited.”

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With the softening market impacting property values in many parts of Australia, Sally Dale, Opteon state director for NSW, ACT and Qld joins us to discuss the importance of valuations in the current property market

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Joining host Phil Tarrant, Sally will draw on her 25 years of experience in valuation and discuss the processes involved in arriving at a value for a particular property. She will also share how that process differs between commercial and residential properties and the difficulties which regional property valuations can present.

Sally will unpack the importance and cost of regular valuations on your properties, discuss whether presentation and owner input can sway a valuation and share what you should look for when seeking a reputable property valuer.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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A softening market can be a difficult time for a property investor with finance approval tightening and property capital growth slowing, and while many real estate agents are also feeling the squeeze McGrath Brighton Le Sands' Bill Tsounias claims it is simply the market returning to normal.

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Bill joins host Phil Tarrant to share his thoughts on the current Sydney property market, and to share the shifts that he has seen in house and unit sale prices following their worst quarter in the past decade.

Bill will unpack why properties are spending longer on market, share what he believes property investors are doing wrong when trying to sell their properties and share the secrets to getting the best out of a real estate agent and an auction in the current softening market.

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If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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Gavin Kemp and his now-fiancé bought their first property together after only six months of dating. They weren’t even living together at the time. Now, two years on, the pair have bought five properties, sold two and have a solid plan in place for their ongoing property journey. 

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In this episode of the Smart Property Investment Show, Gavin joins host Phil Tarrant to discuss how he chose the locations where he decided to invest and how, due to the initial lack of education (something that he now values highly), he lost money on his first two investments.

Gavin will share his thoughts on the current property market, reveal the people who he has leaned on throughout his property journey and discuss why his strategy employs a zero procrastination rule.

If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on iTunes (The Smart Property Investment Show) and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: FacebookTwitter and LinkedIn.

If you have any questions about what you heard today, any topics of interest you have in mind, or if you’d like to lend your voice to the show, email [email protected] for more insights!

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A joint property portfolio before they were even living together

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