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$200k declines forecast in big-name markets

$200k declines forecast in big-name markets

by Sasha Karen | December 03, 2018 | 1 minute read

A panel of experts believe house prices could fall as much as 20 per cent in 2019 - marking a major opportunity for investors looking to scoop a bargain. 

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December 03, 2018

A survey by comparison website finder.com.au has found 15 out of 21 experts believe that a forecasted property house decline of 15 to 20 per cent by ANZ Bank in Sydney and Melbourne is likely, and that the RBA should not begin lifting interest rates in 2019.

Dr Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at AMP Capital says the worst-case of the 20 per cent decline is most likely to come true.

“I have not been expecting a rate hike next year and have been forecasting a 20 per cent decline in Sydney and Melbourne property prices top to bottom,” Dr Oliver said.

What this would mean, according to Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, would be a loss of equity ranging from just above $145,000 to just below $200,000.


“ANZ’s suggested 15 per cent drop would see $145,500 and $118,500 wiped off the average house price in Sydney and Melbourne respectively,” Mr Cooke said.

“A 20 per cent drop would see nearly $200,000 disappear from the equity of Sydney homeowners.

“If we do see these types of price drops in the market, recent home buyers who laid down a 20 per cent deposit could see themselves in negative equity by the end of the year.”

Geordan Murray, economist at the Housing Industry Association, said a house price fall in larger cities will mean the cash rate will not move on Tuesday.

“There is still insufficient evidence of inflationary pressures to justify a rate hike. Declining home prices in Sydney and Melbourne, particularly given the magnitude of the falls, would ordinarily trigger calls to cut rates,” Mr Murray said.

The survey also found 14 of the experts expect to see less construction of new homes in 2019, with 38 per cent predicting at least a drop of 10 per cent.

Whenever the current trend of no cash rate movements comes to an end, 78 per cent of the finder.com.au panel believe the next movement will be a rise.

$200k declines forecast in big-name markets
red arrow pointing down 200k decline forecast big name markets
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