Analysis has pointed to five Sydney suburbs that could signal the expected market turnaround.
According to analysis by Sydney buyer’s agent Nick Viner, five suburbs have stood out as “beacons” of the current property cycle and are expected to represent when the Sydney market is expected to rise.
“The facts are that certain fundamentals ensure some suburbs react before others when prices begin rising again,” Mr Viner said.
The turn in the market is expected to occur sooner rather than later due to the Coalition winning the federal election and APRA’s proposed lending guideline reforms; however, knowing exactly when the market will turn is hard to pinpoint.
“However, by looking at those suburbs with the right fundamentals and observing historical price movements, I’ve chosen addresses where prices will most likely rise first,” Mr Viner claimed.
In Mr Viner’s analysis, suburbs within a 10-kilometre radius of the CBD were looked at, as these suburbs are the most reactive to price changes, followed by fundamental price-growth drivers, like infrastructure and facilities.
“Knowing which suburbs to watch means you’ll be ahead of the general market upswing,” Mr Viner said.
According to Mr Viner, the five beacon suburbs to watch are:
Property in Glebe is located close to facilities and is described by Mr Viner as “enviable”, but has declined by 17 per cent over the last year to a median price around $1.6 million that is “well below its peak”.
“Glebe is a stone’s throw from Haymarket and the rest of the CBD and is close to the University of Sydney, UTS and RPA hospital,” Mr Viner said.,
“The suburb has remained popular with a cross-section of purchasers from first home buyers to families looking to upgrade to downsizers.
“I have no doubt when real estate prices turn around, Glebe will be among the first to benefit.”
Redfern is positioned as what Mr Viner calls “the city’s most exciting addresses”, with gentrification paving the way to rises in property prices in the past, but has declined by 16.8 per cent over the last year to a median of $1.39 million.
“The upside is this: new infrastructure is enhancing Redfern’s appeal. As confidence returns to the market, it will definitely be one to watch as among the first for value increases,” he said.
A number of projects in the area include the Commonwealth Bank moving 10,000 staff near Redfern Station, an expected upgrade of the station, as well as the upcoming Central Precinct Project, which is expected to turn Redfern into a transport hub.
Lane Cove, 7 kilometres from the CBD, is deemed as a must-have address, Mr Viner said, due to being an administrative hub for the local council and being a major commercial centre.
Over the last year, the suburb saw declines of about 16.6 per cent over the last year to a median of around $1.8 million.
“The pressure amongst Lower North Shore families looking for good homes close to schools, shops and transport is simply too great for them to ignore Lane Cove as an option when the market turns,” the buyer’s agent said.
Suburbs to the east of Sydney remained relatively strong during the last year, yet North Bondi saw the largest decline in the area, falling 16.4 per cent to a median $2.533 million.
A pricey sum, but Mr Viner predicted that North Bondi would be one of the first suburbs to move back up.
“Stock and prices have tightened considerably since last year – even in recent months. Good luck now if you are looking for a house in North Bondi under $2.5 million!”
Located about 5 kilometres away from the CBD, Mr Viner identified Leichhardt as one of the more affordable suburbs to purchase into at this distance from the CBD, with a decline of 15.8 per cent in the last year down to $1.28 million.
“Stock levels have tightened up considerably since last year, particularly in the ultra-competitive sub-$1.5 million price bracket, which is a popular budget amongst first home buyers, small families and downsizers,” he said.
The unstable scheduling of WestConnex starting and stopping, while typically a deterrent, could play in a buyer’s favour, Mr Viner added.
“The uncertainty of WestConnex may have had an impact upon some properties affected by tunnels and other construction, but as the project nears completion, this is likely to be less of a factor in the future and could, in fact, boost values,” he concluded.